The Cincinnati Bearcats celebrated their twelfth win of the season with pull-ups and a screaming locker room egging him on, but they’re far from their goal. They have already achieved more than any other Group of 5 team has in the College Football Playoff era as its highest ever ranked program. In Tuesday’s installment of the playoff rankings, the Bearcats emerged as the fourth ranked team, ahead many of the one-loss teams that would have usurped them in the past. That doesn’t stop the questions that inevitably emerge as the regular season draws to a close today. The “what if’s” continue to chop at the Bearcats, and they are unlikely to subside until the final rankings emerge.
Among those questions are that which Jon Chuckery presented this morning on College Football Gametime. The PAC-12 likely removed themselves from the top four with Oregon’s loss last week, the Big Ten will have its representative likely come from the winner of The Game between Ohio State and Michigan, and the SEC Championship will carry major implications as well, but most interesting is the curious case of the Big 12. The champion of the conference very well could end up being Oklahoma or Oklahoma State – or a one-loss Power 5 conference champion. That is a data point that carries significant weight historically in the committee’s decision- making process.
So what if Oklahoma State is 12-1 and the Big 12 champion.
Would you take them over 13-0 Cincinnati?
“If that’s going to happen, and you’re going to knock Cincinnati out of the playoff, why not start that process last week?” Asks Jon Chuckery, “I’m going to have a real problem if after next week’s games and all this plays out Oklahoma State magically jumps.”
Everybody knows the situation, so why set up the two team buffer with the Cowboys at number seven and the Bearcats at number four? If you were looking for a reason to not let them in, why put them at fourth in the first place? Perhaps the committee sees a viable avenue for them with wins over Oklahoma and subsequently Baylor in the Big 12 Championship game. But why delay that move up? If they’re more likely to make it, why not have them there already?
It’s difficult to imagine that scenario, but this is a Group of 5 team that has been through this before. The difference in this year and previous year is the presence of the quality wins for Cincinnati. The Bearcats can also boast wins over top-10 programs (Notre Dame) with multiple wins over teams in the Top 25 (Houston).
Now, if either lose, this is all for naught. But the chaos that could reign over the next two weeks is certainly tantalizing and it can (and will) shape the perceptions of the committee and the sport as a whole.