Mitch Keller may be a good major league pitcher one day. The 2014 second-round pick possesses an easy fastball and was once ranked as high as No. 12 on Baseball America's prospect list.
But that day hasn't arrived yet. Following another bad outing Thursday against the Dodgers, it's time for the Pirates to option Keller back to the minors. He can't be counted on to deliver a quality start right now.
The numbers since May 4 are ugly: 23 innings, 20 runs, 30 hits, 14 walks. It adds up to an 8.69 ERA over his last seven starts.
Despite Keller's struggles, manager Derek Shelton says the team intends to keep him in Pittsburgh. "I think we need to continue to work on what we are working on here," he told reporters, including the Fan's Jeff Hathhorn. "That would be a decision that we would talk about. It's more fastball command stuff. We have to isolate on why and then how it needs to transfer in games."
That's fine reasoning, except Keller hasn't even dominated at the Triple-A level. The right-hander's career ERA at Triple-A is 3.98.
But in the major leagues, Keller's ERA is sitting at 7.02. We can play semantics and divide Keller's starts into "good" and "bad" categories. Indeed, he has a 2.50 ERA in his five best starts. However, he's sporting a 13.58 ERA in his seven other outings.
"I've never seen a guy get so many chances," AT&T SportsNet Analyst Michael McHenry said Friday on the Fan Morning Show.
Thursday's performance was especially laborious. Keller allowed a lead-off home run to Mookie Betts, and then loaded the bases in the second and third innings. Opposing pitcher Julio Urias lined the parting shot into right-center, scoring two runs, and ending Keller's day.
Plenty of pitchers can impress over a five-start sample. The key is whether you can keep it up over a full six-month campaign. For the season, Keller's ERA is 7.04. Opponents are batting .290 against him.
Pirates starters have been abysmal, posting an ERA of 5.51 — last in MLB. Their futility is the main reason Pittsburgh is now 11 games out of first place.
Sending down Keller wouldn't be a panacea for the Pirates' woes, of course. And there's an argument to seeing if he can work out his kinks at the big league level.
But eventually, that becomes a self-defeating prophecy. Keller isn't getting better, and hasn't shown he can help right now.
The Pirates should send him down until he demonstrates he can.
