As we head into fall, U.S. consumers are feeling a bit more confident about the economy, according to poll results released this week by The Conference Board.
Its monthly “Consumer Confidence Survey” tracks consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and consumer expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. This month, the Consumer Confidence Index metric increased to 103.3 from 101.9 in July.
Confidence increased among consumers age 35 and over and it decreased for consumers under age 35. It also declined for people making less that $25,000 a year, while consumers making more than $100,000 a year were the most confident.
Two other metrics – the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index – also improved month over month. In fact, August marked the second consecutive month with an Expectations Index score above 80. Anything below 80 usually signals an upcoming recession, according to The Conference Board.
“Overall consumer confidence rose in August but remained within the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.
During that time, inflation and interest rate hikes intended to tame inflation have both made things financially stressful for Americans. While 12-month inflation finally dipped below 3% last month, high prices are still impacting consumers, with weeks to go until the Federal Reserve Bank’s next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, when interest rates might be lowered.
Survey results showed that consumers’ expectations for 12-month inflation are now at their lowest point since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Additionally, the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months dropped for the third month in a row to 46.5% That’s the lowest since February 2024.
It looks like consumers might be right when it comes to gas prices. Audacy reported this week that industry analysts believe the national average of a gallon of regular gas could dip down to $3 per gallon soon. A national average that low hasn’t been seen since 2021. At the same time, Subway made headlines for increasing the price of its famous $5 footlong deal to $15 before bringing it down to $6.99.
However, Americans were also “rattled earlier this month, when there was a sudden, and quick, stock market roller coaster. There are also looming concerns about the labor market, following a report that Americans are searching for a job at the highest rate in a decade and Bureau of Labor Statistics data that revealed there’s been less employment than previously thought this year.
“Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August. Compared to July, they were more positive about business conditions, both current and future, but also more concerned about the labor market,” Peterson said.
Even as consumers’ outlook about inflation brightens, it was still one of the top mentions in write-in responses. Survey results also showed that purchasing plans for homes fell to a 12-month low. Political polling this year has also shown that the economy and inflation are top issues for voters.
“In August write-in responses, the share of respondents believing the 2024 elections would impact the economy was stable, at slightly above 2020 levels – but well below the August 2016 level,” said The Conference Board. Audacy reported this Thursday that Vice President Kamala Harris was gaining on former President Donald Trump when it comes to how voters see them handling key issues like the economy and crime.