Sunday night's Bills-Chiefs divisional matchup may be the biggest game on the NFL's calendar that doesn't start with Super and end with Bowl. A rematch of last year's AFC Championship game (and October's Week 5 blowout), whoever wins the divisional round matchup figures to be at least 3-point favorites in next week's Championship game. Are the Bills just peaking at the right time? Can the Chiefs figure out how to avoid a second 3-score loss to the same team in the same year? Here are the matchups to keep an eye on:
Patrick Mahomes vs. Micah Hyde
Not to discount how well the Bills played for all 4 quarters against the Patriots last week, but in hindsight, the game was definitely over after Hyde's head-turning first quarter interception. The Bills' safety has had a tremendous season: he ranks 3rd out of 94 safeties according to Pro Football Focus, and despite some coverage stats that suggest a bit of a dip in production there, he's obviously still a force to be reckoned with. It took about a month for the Chiefs to realize that they couldn't constantly chuck the ball downfield this year if they wanted to get back to their 3rd straight Super Bowl, but still -- they're the Chiefs. They're going to push it, at least a little bit. If they can figure out a way to stretch the field vertically without giving Hyde (and their other safety Jordan Poyer, who's no joke either) a bunch of chances to make plays, they'll put up enough points to move on.
Josh Allen vs. Chris Jones (and Melvin Ingram)
It's admittedly a bit cliché to just list both quarterbacks as matchups to watch, but I'm not wrong either. Allen's playing about as well as he ever has, and looked like one of the 2-3 best quarterbacks in football during the dismantling of New England. The arm talent gets most of the attention, but let's not forget (and I'm sure the Chiefs aren't) that he's huge, and can run, and is remarkably hard to bring down. After a failed experiment on the edge, Jones returned inside and almost immediately went back to being one of the league's best defensive linemen. It's a luxury the Chiefs can afford thanks to Ingram, who's played -- again, according to PFF -- like the 16th best edge rusher (out of 114) in the NFL this season. Buffalo's offensive line is good but not great, which makes you figure that there will be at least a few plays that see Allen on the run, whether that's intentional or not. Keeping QBs out of rhythm always goes a long way, but it takes on an entirely new importance when the alternative is, you know, ending your season early.
Creed Humphrey vs. the Bills' defensive front
The Bills front four is like, SCARY scary: all four (Jerry Hughes, Ed Oliver, Harrison Phillips, and Gregory Rousseau rank among the top 30 at their position (that's good) and all have at least 70+ grades at PFF (that's great). They also, as a unit, rank 6th in pass rush win rate. The good news is that the Chiefs are one of the best pass-protecting lines in football, ranking 2nd in pass block win rate. Humphrey's been one of the best rookies in football all season, and though it's on all five guys to handle the Bills' front, there's obviously some heightened importance at the center position. Will there be some first-playoff-game jitters? It's not like Mahomes can't make plays on the run, but a nice comfortable pocket never hurt anyone. It's going to be a long night if Mahomes has another Super Bowl 55 type of experience, and that starts with Humphrey.
