Here's what we know about Bob Quinn and the Lions, less than a week from the draft. They're operating under a win-now mandate, they're leaning toward defense with the third overall pick, and they're in need of a No. 1 corner.
Now, here's what we know about Ohio State CB Jeffrey Okudah. He's considered the best prospect at his position since three-time Pro Bowler Jalen Ramsey, he has the tools to thrive in Detroit's defense, and he'll be drafted third overall by the Lions next Thursday.
Okay, don't take that last part to the bank. The draft is prone to throw us curveballs, and Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons and Auburn DT Derrick Brown are options for Detroit as well. But as we take stock of the Lions today, the signs are pointing directly toward Okudah.
Third overall? Fifth overall? Sixth? That much is up for debate. Ideally, the Lions will move down and still get their guy. But if they stand pat, don't expect Quinn to balk at the idea of making Okudah the highest-drafted corner this century. Remember, it was just last year he made Justin Coleman the league's highest-paid nickle.
This is a different NFL than the one where corners were so rarely drafted in the top five.
“I’m not sure why teams have shied away," said Quinn. "Honestly, I don’t. It’s obviously critical and has high value in the league. When you look at corners, you basically have three corners that are starters in professional football now. We signed Justin Coleman to play nickel and we paid him like a starter because we feel like you need three starting-level corners to have a productive defense."
The Lions have two at the moment, in Coleman and Desmond Trufant. The former isn't a No. 1. The latter probably isn't anymore. Detroit also signed Darryl Roberts, but he feels more like a pawn in Patricia's defense than an every-down player. Roberts and Trufant -- and Duron Harmon, for that matter -- aren't the fix to a secondary that just allowed the most passing yards in the NFL.
That's the cost of trading a three-time Pro Bowler and premium cover corner in Darius Slay. And this is the cost of replacing him, not that the precedent is all that bad. While it's true only five corners this centurty have been drafted in the top five, you've got two All-Pros in Jalen Ramsey and Patrick Petersen, two Pro-Bowlers in Denzel Ward and Terrence Newman and a 10-year starter in Quentin Jammer.
"It’s something that is not unique to take one in the top five," said Quinn. "It’s just got to make sense for your club.”
It makes sense for the Lions, and not just for the need. And not just for Okudah's length and physicality and ability to play press coverage, all staples of Patricia's defense. And not just for the fact Detroit has a new defensive coordinator with a long background in coaching corners.
It makes sense because, as Quinn noted, the NFL offseason won't look anything like it has in the past. Rookies will have even less time to get up to speed than usual -- so they better be able to hit the ground running.
"We have to do a good job of making sure the player we select can come in right away, especially if we’re drafting that early, come in day one and be a guy that can help us win games," said Quinn. "We always give rookies a little bit of leeway to learn the system, but I think this year is a little different. We have to make sure we’re making the right decision that a guy can come in maybe without a full offseason program and contribute."
That's especially true in Detroit, where Quinn and Patricia need results in 2020. Simmons could help in that regard, and there's no doubt he's built for Patricia's scheme. Brown could help, too. But the Lions signed Jamie Collins to be their roving linebacker, and they've rebuilt their defensive line, too. They can make their biggest improvement at corner, which means Okudah stands to make the biggest impact this season.
That's where it starts and ends for the Lions, no matter how much Quinn suggests otherwise. If he and Patricia were truly paying mind to the future, they wouldn't have basically ruled out a quarterback third overall. But we digress. Okudah is an elite prospect with the potential to be an elite NFL corner, as soon as next season. He can play every down and affect every play. More than any player within their reach, Okudah can help the Lions win in 2020.
That's what we know, or at least it's what we think. Now we wait for Quinn to tell us the rest.