In five years as general manager of the Lions, Bob Quinn drafted 21 defensive players, including five in the first two rounds. Quick, guess how many were primary starters this year in Detroit -- on the worst defense in the NFL?
Two: cornerback Amani Oruwariye and rookie defensive tackle John Penisini. Safety Tracy Walker probably should have made it three, except the coach Quinn hired kept finding reasons not to play him.
Over the same span of time, Brad Holmes and the Rams drafted the same number of defensive players. Guess how many were primary starters this year in Los Angeles -- on the best defense in the NFL?
Six. And guess how many came from the first two rounds?
One. Otherwise: two sixth-rounders, a fifth-rounder, a fourth rounder and a third-rounder. Last year's sixth rounder, Ohio State safety Jordan Fuller, stands as arguably the biggest steal of the draft. He went two picks after Penisini.
Technically, these weren't Holmes' picks. He wasn't the Rams' GM. But as director of college scouting, they were certainly his players. Now he becomes GM of the Lions, where he'll be looking for the same kind of players with better resources.
You know this by now, but Holmes and the Rams had one first-round pick over the last five drafts: Jared Goff first overall in 2016. Their next-highest pick was No. 44 in 2017. Of the 42 players they've drafted since 2016, just five of whom came in the first two rounds, 13 were primary starters this year on a team that went 10-6 and made it to the second round of the playoffs.
The Rams' highest average pick over that span, approximated: No. 49.
Quinn had five first-round picks to work with in Detroit, including two in the top 10. He made at least two picks before the Rams were even on the clock in each of the last three drafts. Of the 43 players the Lions drafted under Quinn, including 10 in the first two rounds, eight were primary starters this year on a team that finished last in the NFC North for the third season in a row.
The Lions' highest average pick over that span, approximated: No. 14.
The Rams won't pick this year until late in the second round, No. 57 overall. Holmes and the Lions will be on the clock at No. 7 and then again at No. 41. Think about that. Detroit's first two picks with Holmes as GM will be higher than every pick for the Rams in the past four drafts. And the Rams made the playoffs in three of those four years. (And went 9-7 in the other.)
There's no guarantee Holmes will get it right. The Rams whiffed on their first two top-10 picks during his time in charge of scouting: Tavon Austin 8th overall in 2013 and Greg Robinson 2nd overall in 2014. But they saved the latter draft with two-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald 13th overall, and hit another home run the next year with 2017 Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley 10th overall.
The Rams really haven’t missed with any of their top two picks in the past five drafts. All 10 players remain on the team, and those who were healthy all played significant snaps in 2020, including the franchise QB, top WR, top TE, and top RB. Nine of those 10 picks came on offense. The only one on defense produced a starting safety. Approximate average pick: No. 66.
Granted, there’s a lot more to the GM job than the draft. But that’s where it starts, and in most cases ends. Draft well, your team will win. Draft poorly, it won’t be your team for long. The Lions were Quinn’s team longer than they should have been. Same goes for Matt Patricia, who largely failed to develop whatever talent Quinn brought in. The Rams, on the other hand, entrust their players to one of the best coaches in the business.
Holmes didn't get to choose his head coach in Detroit. Dan Campbell was seemingly handpicked by Chris Spielman, and who knows if Campbell and Holmes will have compatibles views in talent evaluation. Maybe it's best if they don't; Quinn and Patricia were so like-minded neither of them could tell how often they were wrong. Hopefully Holmes and Campbell can prove each other right.
In Holmes, anyway, there's plenty of reason to believe.