Dan Campbell and the Lions used to go for fourth downs out of necessity. It was a way to steal possessions for an undermanned team. Now they do it out of conviction, as a way to win games.
They beat the Packers last week by going 4-for-5 on fourth downs, including a 4th and 1 with under a minute left that set up the game-winning field goal as time expired. Campbell preferred the odds of Detroit's elite offense gaining the necessary yard than its injury-ravaged defense stopping Jordan Love and the Packers with a three-point lead and 40 seconds remaining.
Campbell leans on "everything that I’ve been through as a coach" when making such decisions, "things that happened in New Orleans, certainly things that have happened here," he said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket.
"And then you think about how the game has gone, you think about where you’re at, where your guys are at, where you feel like you’re best suited to finish the game out," he said. "Look, if you think you can win the game and you don’t have to worry about anything else after that moment, I’m gonna be drawn to that more times than not.
"And look, it’s not always going to play out like that. And it doesn’t mean I’m always going to go for it in that situation, but we were under a yard and I just felt like that was the right thing to do in that moment."
Campbell nevertheless faced backlash for the decision from national talking heads like former Patriots linebacker Tedy Bruschi, who said he wouldn't want Campbell "on my sideline" and questioned his "emotional control." And from former Eagles linebacker Emmanuel Acho, who went so far as to call the fourth-down call "asinine."
"It’s funny to hear all the criticism after it works," Jared Goff said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "You can only imagine how bad it would have been if it didn’t work. It’s bizarre. It was a weird weekend to hear them talking about it and how critical they were of Dan on a decision that was correct in hindsight. It’s funny, everybody’s got an opinion. For us it works, and I’m sure we’ll keep doing it."
Since Campbell's first season as head coach, the Lions lead the NFL with 144 fourth down attempts. Where they converted barely half of them in 2021, they've converted more than two thirds this year. They're 15-for-22 so far, fourth in success rate and ninth in attempts.
Why don't more NFL coaches take the same aggressive approach to fourth down?
"Oh, I don’t know," said Campbell. "Look, here’s the obvious. What happens when we don’t get that? We’re moving to the next house, you know what I mean? So, that’s why. But to each his own. There’s plenty of philosophies that have worked in this league and you can win a lot of games doing it your way, I just lean more this way. It doesn’t mean we’re always going to be this way, but that was right for that game."
Campbell's right: it doesn't always work. It backfired in the Packers game when the Lions were stopped on their own 31-yard line late in the third quarter and Green Bay took the lead four plays later. But they also gained eight points by scoring two touchdowns on 4th and goal, one of which came on the heels of another 4th and 1 conversion.
With an elite offensive line, a quarterback who's cool under fire and an armory of weapons featuring two of the best backs in the game, the Lions are better-equipped than most teams to win a single down. Thus the calculus is different for Campbell. As he explained after the late conversion last Thursday night, "I felt like with our guys, it wouldn’t be as big of a risk as it may appear to be."
The equation is also a matter of feel. Collective confidence is key. Campbell joked that if he looks onto the field and brooding right tackle Penei Sewell "is giving me puppy eyes, then no," he won't make the call to go for it.
"But that’s not the case here," he said. "We’ve been doing this now for a while. Our guys understand what’s at stake and the way that we play more times than not. They’ve been put in the fire enough to where they understand these fourth downs, and we play pretty good under pressure. That’s a credit to our players and our coaches. They’re ready for it.
"It’s just a matter of, for me, making sure that I do give them the best opportunity to still have success."