Dan Campbell might not want to admit it, but Jared Goff is struggling.
"Look, there’s been some turnovers, but when you say struggle, I don’t feel struggle," Campbell said Tuesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "That’s not what I think of when I think of Goff. I feel like he’s made some really good plays for us, some really good throws."
Over the course of the season, sure. Even as recently as two weeks ago, Goff came through in the clutch in the Lions' win over the Saints. But if Goff gets a good deal of the credit for Detroit's 9-4 record, he bears just as much of the blame for the team's recent slide, including a sloppy loss to the Bears last week in which the Lions were shut out in the second half.
On a cold, windy day in Chicago, Goff posted season lows in yards (161) and yards per attempt (4.6) and had a hand in three turnovers for the third time in the last four games. The killer was a fumble on a botched exchange with fill-in center Graham Glasgow late in the third quarter of a one-score game. Five plays later, the Bears were in the end zone with a 25-13 fourth quarter lead. The other turnovers were fourth-and-long interceptions that, to Campbell, "weren’t even turnovers for Goff" because he was forced to put the ball up for grabs. Goff, to his credit, said "the second half was just not even close to good enough in execution."
Campbell acknowledged that it wasn't Goff's best game, but said "the idea was not to get into that type of game in the fourth quarter where you’re down two scores and you’re forced to throw every play with a 15 mile-per-hour wind in your face. That’s not it. But honestly, I don’t feel like he’s struggling, I really don’t."
The eye test says something different, and the numbers bear it out. Goff doesn't look nearly as in-rhythm as he did early in the season when he was a legitimate MVP candidate behind an offensive line operating at peak capacity. The most drastic view is comparing his first six games (11 TD, three INT, 105.1 rating) to his last seven (10 TD, seven INT, 86.9 rating). That's one way a 5-1 start slows into a 4-3 crawl. The Lions are only going as far as their offense carries them.
But Goff was still among the best quarterbacks in football through the first 10 weeks of the season. It's the last four weeks that feel like a regression, as the turnovers have crept back into his game and the big plays have mostly dried up. It's not a coincidence that his protection has begun to wilt at the same time.
Goff is at his best when he's A) taking care of the football and B) breaking down a defense with the play-action pass. He was doing both through the first 10 weeks, cresting in a near-perfect performance in the Lions' 41-38 win over Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Over that nine-game stretch, Goff made a total of six turnover-worthy throws, as judged by Pro Football Focus, or just 1.7 percent of his attempts. He had a rating of 129.0 in play-action and was 13-23 on attempts of 20-plus yards. He was being pressured on about a third of his drop-backs and sacked about 1.5 times per game. This was more or less the same quarterback who helped the Lions close last season on an 8-2 run.
In four games since, Goff has eight turnover-worthy throws, or 4.9 percent of his attempts. This number feels like it could be even higher considering some of the errant passes -- and likely pick-sixes -- that defenders have dropped. Goff has made a bad habit of either misreading coverages or overestimating his own abilities to fit balls into tight windows. His rating has plunged to 84.1 in play-action and he's 5-13 on attempts of 20-plus yards. He's been pressured on more than 40 percent of his drop-backs and sacked 2.5 times per game. At the risk of an oversimplification, this is more or less the same quarterback who was dumped by the Rams.
Goff will only ever be as good as the guys in front of him. That's the simple reality of relying on a non-mobile quarterback. It's not that Goff lacks poise under pressure, it's that he just has no way of escaping it. In a particularly jarring stat this week from ESPN, Goff's QBR under pressure since the bye is ... 0.6, worst in the NFL. Unlike passer rating, QBR takes into account his ability to run.
Goff's most glaring flaw can be concealed by a strong offensive line, and the Lions have one of the best in the NFL. But it rears its ugly head when his protection breaks down, especially in the face of extra rushers. When blitzed over his first nine games of the season, Goff was pressured 40 percent of the time and had a passer rating of 87.6, serviceable under the circumstances. When blitzed in his last four games, he's been pressured 50 percent of the time and has a passer rating of 55.9.
The difference in Goff's passer rating when blitzed and not blitzed over the duration of this season is one of the most drastic in the NFL. It's even more extreme when pressured -- 58.8 -- and kept clean -- 111.3. The latter mark is third best in the NFL among qualified quarterbacks, the former 28th. This is and always will be the book on Jared Goff.
Detroit's offensive line should be fine, with center Frank Ragnow poised to return to the lineup soon. That's good, because it's the key to getting Goff back on track. It's also incumbent upon Goff to make the right reads and hit his receivers in stride when given the time, or least give them a chance to make plays on the ball. The Lions have too much speed for their downfield passing attack to look so lame at this point in the season, especially with Jameson Williams re-integrated into the offense. And Goff has too much experience to keep making so many ill-advised throws under pressure.
The Lions' second-half drive chart last week read punt, punt, punt, fumble, turnover on downs, turnover on downs, interception. Goff said it was "mostly our own fault that we weren’t able to move the ball very well."
"That’s something I take a lot of pride in, is being able to score points, and something I plan on getting fixed this week," he said.
To do so, Goff said the Lions have to "find ways to get back to who we are offensively and play a complete game, play a together game and complement each other. Do a lot of things we were doing that got us to all these wins." He should benefit from a return to the domed confines of Ford Field on Saturday night. The Lions won't play another outdoor game this season, at least until the playoffs. Goff might not want to admit it, but he's at his best indoors.
Just like Campbell won't admit that Goff is struggling. Nothing wrong with a coach protecting his players. But it's on the Lions to protect Goff from pressure, and on Goff to protect the football. The playoffs won't protect a vulnerable quarterback from himself.