Perspective colors everything, and can make the Red Wings feel blue. If you had told them at the end of February, on the heels of winning six in a row and establishing an eight-point cushion on a playoff spot, that they'd be on the outside looking in come April, they would have turned green.
It can also make things look bright. If you had offered the Wings in October the chance to be one point out of the playoffs with four games to go, "I think everyone would have taken it," Moritz Seider said Wednesday. He smiled and added, "Probably the whole city of Detroit would have taken that."
"We probably owe someone a big favor. I don’t know what’s happening, other teams didn’t really capitalize on the opportunities they had and we stayed in it and now we’re one game away from controlling our own destiny again," said Seider. "And obviously that’s a lot better than being forced to watch other teams play."
The Red Wings let a major opportunity slip through their fingers Tuesday night in a 2-1 loss to the Caps, who jumped them, for now, for the second wild card spot in the East -- despite having lost six in a row entering the game. Detroit nearly doubled up Washington in shots, but couldn't solve Charlie Lindgren until the last second of the game. An even bigger game awaits Thursday in Pittsburgh. The Red Wings and Penguins are tied at 84 points, trailing the Caps by one. All three teams have four games to go.
Odds are, the winner of this struggle will be the worst playoff team to come out of the East since the divisions were realigned and the wild card format was introduced in 2013-14. In a conference where the bar for admission to the playoffs has been about 96 points in the wild card era, it might not take more than 90 points to get in.
The low was set last season by the Panthers, who claimed the second wild card with 92 points. Florida eventually made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals, but that was a team that had won the Presidents' Trophy the year prior. It always had the talent. The year before that, the Caps set the floor with 100 points. The only other time in a full season that the second wild card team in the East has had fewer than 95 points was in '13-14, when the Wings joined the conference and snuck in with 93.
Derek Lalonde has talked about the challenge of making the playoffs in the East since he was hired two years ago as Red Wings head coach, to the point (I'd argue) of being resigned to his team's fate. He's been bullish this season on needing somewhere between 95 and 100 points to get in. He admitted on Wednesday that he's surprised that target has come down.
"I am, I kind of had a vision all year long of about 96," Lalonde said. "But I just think it’s the reality of everyone beating each other up and just the depth of our division, depth of our conference. Not only are we playing each other, everyone has to go through Carolina and Toronto and Boston and Florida three or four times," said Lalonde, to say nothing of Tampa, playoff mainstays if no longer Cup contenders, and the NHL-leading Rangers.
Still, the Red Wings might not see another opportunity like this for a long while. They would already be buried this season in the West. And Lalonde, if we're being honest, might not see an opportunity like this again in Detroit. Asked if the lower bar for admission adds to the urgency of the task at hand, Lalonde said, "Of course. 100 percent."
"We were talking about this the other day, this was a dream scenario to be in games like this," he said. "No one had us here. Most people projected us seventh in the division, no one had us in the playoffs. And again, not a knock on our group. That was the division, the conference. To have an opportunity right here, we may not be here next year. You look at some of these lineups and teams that are growing. Not to mention other names, but I don’t foresee New Jersey not flirting with 100 points (next season). There’s teams around us.
"You don’t get these opportunities, and we’re in one. We had an opportunity last night, we came up short. We have an opportunity tomorrow against Pittsburgh, we would like to seize that opportunity."
To Lalonde's point, the Devils emerged as legitimate contenders last season with 112 points. They slipped this season in large part because Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier, their top two centers, missed significant time. The Sabres and Senators, Detroit's most immediate competition in the Atlantic, also regressed this season and have the talent to rebound next year -- although your skepticism is understood.
An optimist might say that the Capitals, with a minus-40 goal differential, can't possibly pull this off again, and the Flyers, with a minus-29 goal differential, have finally caught up to themselves. Noted. But the Islanders should be better next year with more familiarity under Patrick Roy and a healthy Ilya Sorokin, and the top of the East isn't crumbling anytime soon. Point is, the Red Wings have to catch the field more than wait for it to fade.
Will they be equipped to do that next season? A lot of things would have to fall into place. Namely, a lot of young players would have to take sizable steps, some of whom aren't even in Detroit. A veteran like Patrick Kane would have to return, and the Red Wings would have to give him a raise while also cutting big checks for Seider and Lucas Raymond. A veteran like David Perron would likely have to be replaced.
It puts Lalonde in a bit of precarious spot. While it's hard to imagine Steve Yzerman axing him after two seasons even if the Wings squander this chance, the next four games could determine whether Lalonde reaches the end of his reported three-year contract without a single playoff appearance. Optically -- and logically -- Yzerman would be hard-pressed to bring him back. Detroit's playoff drought would be at nine seasons. This is the season to end it.
The Wings are a rebuilding team that has attacked the last two offseasons, for better or worse, like a team trying to win. Missing the playoffs in a year where they've arguably never been easier to make would also increase the scrutiny on Yzerman. Patience is a virtue, but so are hope and faith. How much will be left if the Wings don't seize the opportunity in front of them?
This team is probably where we thought it would be this year: flirting with 90 points and a wild card berth. But the East is a lesser version of itself, at least in regard to the playoff bar. It's crucial for Lalonde and the Wings to clear it while they can.