Two years ago, Steve Yzerman identified three rebuilding teams in the East as direct competitors for the Red Wings: Montreal, Ottawa and Buffalo. This year, two of those teams passed them.
The Senators snapped a seven-year playoff drought while the Red Wings extended theirs to nine, and the Canadiens stormed into the playoffs after finishing last in the Atlantic each of the prior three seasons.
It doesn't make either Ottawa or Montreal a Cup contender -- both were staring at 3-1 deficits in the first round as of Tuesday night -- but it does place Detroit a step behind. And it increases Yzerman's urgency this summer to catch up.
"But when you say, make substantial upgrades, it’s easier said than done. We're going to continue to try to get better and try to keep pace with these teams, and not only them. There’s no guarantee that Florida, Toronto and Tampa Bay are going anywhere from the top," Yzerman said.
The Red Wings will have the flexibility this summer to make a splash, with the salary cap rising dramatically in the years ahead. There will be prominent free agents who fit their needs, which Yzerman distilled on Tuesday to players who are "harder" and heavier, and more productive at five-on-five. The Wings are too fragile as presently constructed, physically and psychologically.
Panthers forward Sam Bennett feels like a perfect fit. He's a tenacious center and a Cup winner who's fourth in goals and second in hits over the last four seasons on one of the most imposing teams in the NHL. He's a menace in the playoffs, and turns 29 this summer. On the blue line, 29-year-old Vladislav Gavrikov and 28-year-old Ivan Provorov make sense. All three players could command north of $7 million per year.
And then there's the biggest fish in the free agent pond: Mitch Marner. The Maple Leafs winger is coming off his first 100-point season, turns 28 in May and is fourth in the NHL in scoring over the last four seasons, between Mikko Rantanen ($12 million per year) and Auston Matthews ($13.25 million). He will command well north of $10 million annually. Marner doesn't bring the same edge as someone like Bennett, but has grown into a trusted two-way player in Toronto.
Asked Tuesday if the Red Wings would consider a free agent in the $10 to $11 million-per-year range, Yzerman said, "Absolutely. And we’ve kind of felt that all along." With a core in Detroit both gelling and needing a jolt, now might be the right time to strike.
"We’re going to look at any good player that can help us in any role," Yzerman said. "If there’s a player worthy of spending whatever amount on, that has an interest in playing for Detroit and fits a need for us, absolutely we would try to do that. We’re in a different stage than we were maybe five years ago in that we have a good, young nucleus of players."
At the same time, Yzerman was clear about this: the Red Wings have to improve internally. They did see growth this year in building blocks like Marco Kasper and Simon Edvinsson, and Lucas Raymond before he faded down the stretch. That must continue. Patrick Kane should be back. Top prospect Axel Sandin-Pellikka could arrive. The power play should keep humming. Yzerman also called on "some of the free agents that we've signed" to raise their level of play.
"I expect more from them," Yzerman said, "and I’m still hopeful that we will get more from them."
That's a risky proposition, depending on the player. Some of those bets have already blown up in his face. J.T. Compher and Andrew Copp have failed to produce in a way that matches their salaries, though the Wings did miss Copp this year after he went down for the season. When the Red Wings have erred in free agency, said Yzerman, they've overpaid to win "bidding wars" on July 1.
"We just simply have to walk away from some of these contracts," he said.
The Red Wings will be "more diligent" moving forward. It doesn't mean they won't think big this summer. Yzerman seems to know they don't have much of a choice, even as they remain committed to their draft-and-develop approach -- known to some as the Yzerplan. Their prospect pool is deep, but light on potential stars. They are no longer picking near the top of the draft. Their best player, Dylan Larkin, may have reached his ceiling after 10 NHL seasons. Not every game-changer is going to be found within.
"I don’t measure success by making the playoffs one year and bowing out the next," Yzerman said. "I consider it continued success, that you’re in the playoffs and you’re aiming for Stanley Cups. That’s what we’re trying to do here."
To get there, the Wings will likely have to look elsewhere this summer: The Yzerscan.