First it was the bullpen. Now, as October nears, the Tigers' starting rotation is a source of serious concern.
The last two days did little to quell the panic. Facing a playoff-caliber offense in the Mets, Charlie Morton allowed six runs in 3 2/3 innings in a 10-8 loss on Monday, before Sawyer Gipson-Long allowed six runs in four innings in a 12-5 loss on Tuesday. Jack Flaherty has a 4.74 ERA on the season. Casey Mize, an All-Star selection, has an ERA of 6.00 over the last two months. After Tarik Skubal, it's anyone's guess as to who's taking the ball in Game 2 of a playoff series.
"We have figure it out," A.J. Hinch said Wednesday on 97.1 The Ticket. "What it creates is opportunities for guys to step up and be part of the solution, as opposed to sort of dragging down the drama of not knowing. I do think Jack Flaherty can be a terrific pitcher both in the regular season and a potential postseason. Charlie Morton has shown his flashes, Casey Mize made the All-Star team, we’ve shown that we can be creative with a variety of arms.
"I know it’s way easier on everyone’s emotions and maybe their heart to be tied to knowing everything right now, but we’re just not going to be able to. And I think there’s a lot of teams that aren’t able to stamp that right now. It’s uncomfortable for fans, it’s a reality when you have a couple games like this. But I don’t know what to tell them. It’s hard not being emotional this time of year when you love a team so much."
The Tigers' bullpen has stabilized since the trade deadline, aided largely by the addition of Kyle Finnegan. It ranks fourth in the majors over that stretch with a 3.46 ERA. But the rotation outside of Skubal, which was already starting to wobble, has fallen apart. Detroit's starters have an ERA of 4.68 since July and 5.05 since August, both of which rank 22nd in the majors. The latter mark, excluding Skubal: 5.85.
Flaherty might be the most confounding of the bunch. One start, he's throwing seven shutout innings against the AL West-leading Astros, after getting hit hard by the White Sox and Twins. The next, he's allowing 10 hits and eight runs to the Royals, before turning around and holding them to one run. That's the way most of his season has gone, which makes him a dicey proposition to start a playoff game. It's hard to know which Flaherty you're going to get.
For Hinch, "it’s tough for me to watch these guys struggle down the stretch and try to find solutions on Charlie Morton spraying the fastball or Casey not being able to locate his pitches," he said. "Obviously Jack’s coming off a really good start, so I try not to get caught up in any emotion and try to just keep finding solutions."
The Tigers have the benefit of a nine-game lead in the AL Central, rendering the postseason a virtual lock. But the goal isn't just to get there. Hinch said that he and pitching coach Chris Fetter talk constantly about finding fixes by identifying "the keys" for each pitcher: "And it’s been hard." On Monday, Morton was one pitch away from getting through four innings on an afternoon he couldn't locate his fastball before serving up a grand slam to Juan Soto on a hanging curve.
For Mize, who starts Wednesday in the series finale against the Mets, the key is fastball command.
"Everything plays off of that, the breaking ball does, the split, which has been nasty at times this season and even for part of his last outing," said Hinch. "He finally got the ball below the waist on purpose. He wants to pitch up because his other stuff plays off that, you also want to be able to pitch down when you want to. But if they can eliminate fastball to middle or miss, meaning it’s not on the edges, he’s not locating his pitches, then he and all pitchers are much different to face."
After shutting out the Guardians over seven innings on July 5 -- his best start of the year -- Mize had a 2.63 ERA through 15 starts. He was named an All-Star before his next time out. He has an ERA of 7.20 and a batting average against of .324 in eight starts since.
"Casey made the All-Star team and had a terrific first half because of those locations and because of his ability to get to two strikes quickly," Hinch said. "That’s eluded him for a bit now. He’s very capable of doing it, but obviously we need him back to form to help us win."
One pitcher Hinch isn't counting on in October is Reese Olson, who's out for the rest of the regular season with a shoulder strain. While the Tigers were initially optimistic that Olson (3.15 ERA) could return for the playoffs, Hinch raised doubts about that on Wednesday.
"He’s not playing catch yet. We are first week of September. Even when you start playing catch it’s probably a pretty lengthy buildup, so I don’t think it’s probable right now, early in any possibility like that. I don’t know what it takes for the rest of the month, but to think that he’s going to be ready by the end of the season, I think that’s asking too much given that he’s not playing catch yet," said Hinch.
Detroit's most intriguing option to start Game 2 in the playoffs might be rookie Troy Melton, who's been dominant since getting tagged in his MLB debut in late July. He was moved to the bullpen after the Tigers acquired Morton and Chris Paddack at the deadline (the latter of whom has now been bumped to the bullpen himself), but hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. Melton, a 6'4 righty who could be a natural fit behind the left-handed Skubal, has a 0.67 ERA in nine outings since his debut.
Hinch said the Tigers would consider using Melton as a starter in the playoffs -- "of course, we're going to think about what's there" -- but noted that he's also played a key role in the resurgence of the bullpen as a dynamic arm that can pitch for multiple innings in any spot.
"What I struggle with is people not really recognizing is that he pitched in two of five days and three of eight days, which he would not be able to do in the rotation, so we’re trying to control a little bit of everything with him and deploy him when we can," said Hinch. "It’s a strategy to try to get the most out of him and the most out of our pitching staff.
"And what I would tell you about starters in general is if at the first point of stress in the third or fourth inning we’re going to pull you, is it better to have that shot or is it better to have him deployed over multiple games in a series? That’s for you to answer."
The Tigers have about a month to come up with answers themselves.