So the Tigers are giving five years and $77 million to a pitcher who posted the highest ERA (4.74) of his career and the fifth highest in the AL last season. Because that same pitcher was quietly one of the AL's best.
If you look past some of the surface numbers on Eduardo Rodriguez, you'll find a dude who controlled the zone, limited hard contact and eventually ran into a bunch of bad luck. This, a year after he missed the entire season due to myocarditis from COVID-19, two years after he finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting. And Rodriguez may have pitched better in 2021 than he did in 2019.
Let's measure him against this year's three AL Cy Young finalists to prove it: Gerrit Cole, Lance Lynn and Robbie Ray. Among AL pitchers who logged at least 150 innings last season, Rodriguez finished:
- Tied for 3rd with a 3.32 FIP, an alternative to ERA based on league-average results on balls in play. Lynn: T-3rd. Cole: 2nd. He was also third in xFIP (3.43), which factors in a league-average home run-to-fly-ball ratio. Ray: 2nd. Cole: 1st.
- Tied for 7th with a 3.55 xERA, another version of FIP based on quality-of-contact numbers like exit velocity. Ray: T-7th. Cole: 2nd. Lynn: 1st.
- 4th with 10.6 K/9. Lynn: 8th. Ray: 3rd. Cole: 2nd. He also finished sixth in strikeout rate.
- 8th with a 3.91 K/BB ratio. Lynn: 9th. Ray: 4th. Cole: 1st. He also finished sixth in strikeout rate minus walk rate.
- 8th with a 43.2 percent ground ball rate. Cole: 9th.
- Dead last with a BABIP of .363 -- the highest ever in the expansion era, according to Evan Woodbery. Thing is, Rodriguez didn't deserve it. (No one deserves that!) He ranked sixth in limiting hard contact, per FanGraphs, while Lynn ranked eighth and Cole ranked 13th.
According to Statcast, Rodriguez induced the second lowest average exit velocity (86.5 mph) and the fourth lowest hard-hit rate (33.6 percent) in the AL. He was better than all three AL Cy Young finalists in these categories, and by a wide margin compared to Ray and Cole.
Ground ball pitchers might be more prone to giving up hits, but Rodriguez incurred unfair damage last season. Atlanta's Max Fried induced the exact same average exit velocity and more ground balls than Rodriguez and had a BABIP of .278. He finished with an ERA of 3.04. A's All-Star Chris Bassitt, another ground ball pitcher, induced almost the exact same hard-hit rate as Rodriguez and had a BABIP of .271. He finished with an ERA of 3.15.
So the Tigers are giving five years and $77 million to Rodriguez, because with the same numbers and any luck, that could be a bargain.