The wait to hear Michigan State’s name called on Selection Sunday got a little dicey. After a 19-14 regular season and .500 Big Ten record, the Spartans appeared to be a bubble team in the wake of Saturday’s bid-stealing mayhem.
Even Tom Izzo was starting to feel the heat when MSU hadn’t popped up in the bracket through the first three regions of Sunday’s reveal.
“You sit there, and I think everybody was nervous. I didn’t hear from many people and usually I’m hearing from everybody,” Izzo said Sunday. “But that thing hit and Draymond, Mateen, Antonio… it went right down the list. It’s so cool to be at a place where they’re so excited for you and for the program and for the players.”
The weight was lifted off his shoulders when MSU drew Mississippi State in the West Region’s 8-9 game, extending the Spartans’ streak of consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances to 26.
Here are five things you should know about Michigan State’s matchup with Mississippi State, which is the opening game of the first round, scheduled for 12:15 p.m. Thursday on CBS:
The Spartans are dancing despite stockpiling losses
Michigan State entered this season with high expectations, ranked No. 4 in the preseason AP Top 25. But things didn’t quite go according to plan, having lost 14 games before the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016-17 and just the third time in Tom Izzo’s 29-year tenure.
Eleven of those losses were within single digits, and five of them within one possession. But losses are still losses, leaving many wondering how MSU comfortably got into the field, avoiding the First Four in Dayton.
“It wasn’t only the record, but it was the wins against Quad-1 teams, their strength of schedule and the overall body of work, as we continue to say. We did take notice of those losses, but they had some significant wins, they had some really big opportunities and the matrix was there in order for Michigan (State) to be squarely into the tournament,” Selection Committee Chair Charles McClelland said on CBS Sports HQ Sunday night.
Both teams are slow and relatively efficient
Michigan State ranks 57th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency — “An estimate of the offensive efficiency (points scored per 100 possessions) a team would have against the average D-I defense” — and Mississippi State is 60th.
The Bulldogs rank just outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo and the Spartans are even slower, ranking No. 305 entering the tournament.
So what does this all mean? We’ve got a very even matchup on our hands.
Both teams can clamp down defensively
On the flipside, the Spartans are 8th in adjusted defensive efficiency and the Bulldogs come in at No. 20, meaning they’re among the best defensive teams in the country.
Mississippi State showed that in last week’s SEC Tournament, holding the high-octane Tennessee offense to 56 points in a convincing win.
The Bulldogs and Spartans each held opponents to 60 points or fewer 11 times this season, with Michigan State holding teams to under 50 twice.
Michigan State has struggled to find consistent big men
Tom Izzo has long had reliable post players that can both put up their own numbers and open things up for the guards and wings.
But it’s been more of a struggle this season, with Mady Sissoko never really running away with the starting role he had earned going into the year and the likes of Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler and Xavier Booker never stepping in to take it.
Granted, Booker hasn’t gotten the run time most fans expected for a McDonald’s All-American. He has, however, shown flashes that he’s capable of coming in off the bench and making an impact, both at the rim and from behind the 3-point line.
Josh Hubbard runs the show for Mississippi State
The Bulldogs’ key player is unquestionably Josh Hubbard, who averaged 17.1 points per game and shot better than 35% from 3-point range.
Hubbard ranks in the top 25 in 3-pointers made per game (3.1) in the entire country. His best stretch of the year came in the final five games of the regular season, averaging 28.2 PPG and went 28-for-65 (43.1%) from deep during that stretch.
Ironically, MSU lost the last four games leading into the SEC Tournament despite Hubbard’s big numbers.