Hey Jayce Tingler, what have you got?
I'll tell you what you've got. Plenty of choices when it comes to filling out a lineup card for Opening Day 2020 -- your first real day as a manager in the big leagues. I'm not here to lean on or even lend a helping hand. You'll watch every pitch of spring training, every ground ball and base hit, check every analytic available to you, and then make up your own mind as to whose names and numbers you should scribble down on the afternoon of March 26 (and ultimately keep a copy in hiding for prosperity).
But let's see if we can't predict the future a little bit. Before the Padres even play a spring training game, here's the lineup as I see it heading into the opener against the Colorado Rockies.
First, we need to know the pitcher we're facing, and the odds are at this point -- barring any injury setbacks -- the Rockies' opening day ace will be hard-throwing right-hander German Marquez. With that in mind, here's the lineup Tingler should send out:
1. Fernando Tatis, SS
2. Trent Grisham, RF
3. Manny Machado, 3B
4. Franchy Cordero, CF
5. Tommy Pham, LF
6. Eric Hosmer, 1B
7. Francisco Mejia, C
8. Jurickson Profar, 2B
9. Garrett Richards, P
We'll see how close we've come once the next month or so unfolds. But here, regardless, are some explanations. First and foremost, Tatis in the leadoff spot is an easy choice. No arguments there. Machado batting third, where he really does need to be the team's best hitter this season, is another no-brainer.
The second spot could be interesting. At first glance, Pham would seem to be the fit here. But I don't want to open the season, facing a nasty right-handed pitcher, with three straight right-handed hitters, no matter how good they might be. So Grisham, batting from the left-side gets the call. After Machado, the clean up spot is key. Cordero already has shown that he can bomb righties, so even though he may not play every day, he's the most dangerous force you've got to hit behind Manny in the first game.
Cordero making it to Opening Day healthy, and being productive enough in the spring to warrant this kind of opportunity, I think, is one of the keys to the Padres' entire season. Cordero is an untapped talent that must explode onto the scene this season if any headway is going to be made in the National League West.
After Cordero, I've got Pham batting ahead of the RBI guy, Hosmer. In this setup, Tingler would be going right-left-right-left-right-left with the first six guys in his order. I like that kind of balance. Another key is that the dangerous portion of the attack doesn't end there. Mejia and Profar need to produce in the seven-eight spots to keep things rolling. Batting ninth, I'm predicting it will be Richards, but a bit more on that later.
Let's look at the opening eight field players first. Hosmer, Tatis and Machado are really the only sure things. Pham, in left field, is a pretty sure thing. The other spots are up for grabs. Perhaps, Ty France shows he can play second base. Then he challenges Profar. Maybe Austin Hedges actually brings some lumber with him. Then he battles Mejia. In the outfield, Wil Myers, Josh Naylor and Juan Lagares are all possibilities for playing time. (Though to start, you'd think Myers and Lagares would get more time against left-handed pitching).
Greg Garcia has to fit in somewhere as well. Taylor Trammell is another intriguing option to play center -- but he must make a big leap forward in the coming month.
On the mound, I feel that most expect Chris Paddack to be the Opening Day ace. He might be the ace, but it makes more sense to me for Tingler to start with the experienced Richards on day one. I'd follow him with Paddack, then Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies and Joey Lucchesi. Cal Quantrill gets to battle for a spot as well. In the bullpen, you're set with Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, Craig Stammen, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Strahm and Andres Munoz.
I think if you add it all up, you'll get your 26-man Opening Day roster.
You're welcome.