After a day-long marathon of college hoops on Saturday, and the final full week of college football, the hardwood is garnering more and more attention. The markets should tighten, but there are always edges to be found, and we have another great slate of midweek matchups to sink our teeth into.
Reminder, the spreads and totals listed below are based on the KenPom projections, which are typically indicative of the opening numbers in the betting market.
Here’s three games to look forward to this week:
Tuesday: Florida at Alabama (-1, 153) - ESPN 2, 7 EST
Bring your running shoes to this SEC showdown. Alabama plays at the fourth fastest pace in the country and Florida plays at the 26th, while shots are going to be flying, expect some contrasting styles.
Bama hoists three’s at a high clip as more than 47% of its shots come from downtown. This should match up nicely with a Florida defense that has an elite interior defense, but gets gashed from three, allowing opponents to shoot 36% from beyond the arc.
As well, the high octane Crimson Tide offense is starting to round into form, namely senior wing John Petty, who scored 19 on Saturday against a strong Tennessee defense.
While Bama will put up points, Florida is going to be able to do its own work on offense. Even without star forward Keyontae Johnson, the UF offense has not missed a beat, scoring 91 and 83 points in its first two games since losing him.
The Gators do most of their work with penetration and finishing inside the arc -- shooting 57% from two, but also hit on an above average 36% from three as a team.
With both teams pushing the tempo and getting quick buckets, this has the recipe for an over. While Alabama struggles at the free throw line, 66% as a team, I see a back-and-forth affair that gets over the total with trips to the charity stripe in the final minutes.
Tuesday: Rutgers (-2, 142) at Michigan State - ESPN 2, 9 EST
Why don’t we bookend the doubleheader on ESPN2? No one wants to bet Michigan State right now, I get it. Sparty stumbled out of the gate in conference play, losing its first three, but were able to secure their first Big Ten win against basement dwelling Nebraska Saturday.
In comes Rutgers, who is a legitimate top 15 team in the country, but squandered a chance to upset Iowa at home on Saturday. If Rutgers is going to enter this game favored, as KenPom predicts, I’m going to back Sparty to keep the positive momentum rolling.
State still goes deep into its bench, but Izzo finally moved a true point guard into the starting lineup, inserting freshman AJ Hoggard. Hoggard dished out five assists on Saturday, which helps balance a MSU rotation that already moves the ball well, posting the second highest assist percentage in the country.
Hopefully having its rotation set, the Spartans can now begin to move forward and iron out their defense, which is just 80th in the country. While being burnt from deep, the team does a strong job of cleaning the glass and allowing opponents to just one opportunity.
Rutgers has been knocking on the door of national relevance for the past two years and is finally getting some well deserved recognition. However, Michigan State gets it done here in a great buy low opportunity.
In Big Ten home games, Izzo is 77-57-2 against the spread (ATS), a cool 57.5%. In the rare time he has been an underdog, he is 3-1 ATS, all outright wins.
Wednesday: Oklahoma at Baylor (-12, 152) - ESPN 2, 9 EST
Some might be shocked to see the line come out this high, especially if you caught Oklahoma knocking off No. 9 West Virginia on Saturday, but Baylor is just that good.
The Bears have ran over every team in its way this season, its closest game coming on Saturday, an 11-point win over Iowa State. While Oklahoma will be a nice challenge, the Bears should be able to have its way with them.
The key in this one is Baylor’s outside shooting. After a dismal 4-of-19 performance against ISU, Baylor returns to the friendly confines of the Farrell Center and hopes to regain its shooting stroke.
As a team, the Bears are second in the nation in three-point shooting at over 43%. Sustainable? Probably not, but the team is also ranked inside the top 60 in assist percentage and should be able to attack a Sooners defense that is allowing opponents to hit on nearly 40% of attempts beyond the arc. Baylor is going to be able to move the ball and find open looks. I expect a nice shooting night for the team after a poor one last Saturday.
Further, Oklahoma’s defense is going to be severely challenged on the glass, Baylor collects 40% of available offensive rebounds, which puts them inside the top 5, against a Sooners club that is mediocre on the glass.
Baylor wins big and I would play this up to -13.5.