NFL Week 17 is always one of the most chaotic weeks of the year. There are teams that “need to win”, players sitting, and motivational factors to consider. But, that is what makes betting on it fun, right?
Prior to making your NFL wagers, it's worth knowing which sides are drawing sharp and public action.
To learn more about the betting markets for Week 17, we talked to Dave Sharapan, long-time Las Vegas oddsmaker, for his insights.
Before jumping into games, we asked a couple of general questions, starting with the difficulties of making lines for Week 17.
”Week 17 is always one of the hardest weeks of the year because of the uncertainty,” Sharapan said. “Then you have 2020 as a whole, which has been hard in general, more so than any year because of the pandemic, no fans, facilities shutting down, players out, and that makes it even tougher.”
As for the “this team has more to play for” angle, Sharapan doesn’t put much stock into that. “The Joes are always going to be on the team that needs to win, while the Pros (or Jimmies as he likes to call them) will always wait for the number they want before jumping on it.”
Sharapan explains this year the game has changed in regards to early sharp moves. “You used to see large early or mid-week moves, whether fake or not, to move numbers earlier in the week.”
He states the late moves now usually come on Sunday mornings, and those have been on point.
“This year, due to the pandemic and uncertainty of laying numbers, you are not seeing the early bets, line movement and bigger wagers early in the week,” he said. “Case in point, if you bet on the Denver Broncos early in Week 15, and then their quarterbacks are all out, that is not the spot you want to be in.”
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Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of Thursday
Arizona Cardinals (-3, 40.5) at Los Angeles Rams
The Cardinals are one of the biggest public sides this weekend after news came out that the Rams will be without QB Jared Goff and WR Cooper Kupp.
“That's one of those games where you trust your guys that you work with and opinions of guys you respect,” per Sharapan. “Then you put the number up and let the market and bettors tell us what it should be.”
Sharapan confirmed the public is going to be all over Arizona in this spot.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 44.5) at New York Giants
Per Sharapan, professional and public bettors laid the Cowboys early, pushing the line to a field goal in some places.
“Dallas is a public team,” the Vegas veteran said. “This is definitely going to be one of those 80/20 scenarios by kick-off.”
Are the Giants an undervalued home-dog in this spot? Sharapan thinks so. “The Giants have played more competitive football against the better teams. The books are okay with needing the Giants in this spot.”
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3, 39.5)
Sharapan said this is one of those pick ‘em type games, so oddsmakers hang a three as the number out there and then go from there.
“The Jets are getting some public support, which scares me a little. But, if you have seen New England play this month, you’ve seen the lack of talent, depth, and offensive firepower.”
Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 52) at Chicago Bears
“We are going to see Packers money come in throughout the week after what they did to a good Tennessee Titans team in primetime,” Sharapan said. “If you ask ten people who they are betting on, eight of them are going to say Green Bay in this spot.”
He doesn’t see this line going past 6. That's the point of resistance where he says you will get the pros to come in and grab the Bears.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 50.5)
A team drawing early parlay activity is the Bucs, who are unsurprisingly pulling a ton of public money as big favorites over the lowly Falcons.
“At what point is anyone going to grab Atlanta?” Sharapan asked. “Tampa Bay is going to be the biggest teaser side along with Green Bay.”