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ERCOT's "worst case models" show 80% chance of rolling blackouts in Texas if hit by winter storms similar to 2021

2021 winter storm in Dallas
2021 winter storm in Dallas
Getty Images

It's not likely any of us will ever forget the winter storms that hit Texas in February 2021.  Since those storms, along with the ones in December 2022, a constant fear remains for Texans of another winter barrage that will shut down our city, but more importantly our city's power.

Unfortunately, there's always a chance that will happen again.


According to the Dallas Morning News, ERCOT's "worst case models" show that there's an 80% chance of rolling blackouts across the state returning if Texas is hit by winter storms similar to those we had in February 2021.

If hit by storms like in December 2022, the chances of rolling blackouts decrease to 50%.

Kristi Hobbs, ERCOT's vice president of system planning and weatherization, reiterated that these models were predicting what would happen during a "worst case scenario."

She said, "You shouldn't expect something like a Winter Storm Uri where [blackouts] went on for days.  These would be shorter in duration."

According to the model, this winter blackouts would occur most likely during the 8 a.m. hour as Texans tend to consume more electricity as they wake up and arrive at work, while solar power production continues to lag due to a lack of direct sunlight.

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