As the U.S. government heads towards a potential shutdown, some Social Security recipients may be understandably concerned about whether they’ll see their next benefit check. Here’s what you need to know.
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When might the government shut down?
A partial shutdown would begin at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 1. That means many federal agencies would shut down or perform limited functions. Some staff would work with no pay and others would be put on furlough.
For example, Hamline University professor David Schultz said in an interview with Audacy station WWL that prisons will remain in operation and that the military will stay on the job. He also noted that the Social Security Administration will stay in limited operation. Last week, the SSA Office of Finance and Management published a contingency plan for shutdown conditions.
Why might the government shut down?
Democrats and Republicans in Congress have not yet come to an agreement on spending bill.
“What happens is that by midnight tonight, the current federal budget year expires and without some kind of a budget agreement or a temporary budget agreement, which we call continuing resolution, most or a good chunk of the government will shut down,” Schultz explained.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a Tuesday X post that troops, Transportation Security Administration agents, FEMA, food assistance and more would be impacted by a shutdown. He laid the blame for the potential halt at Democrats feet and said Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is stalling due to potential pushback from progressive Democrats like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.).
“It’s shameful,” Johnson said.
On the other hand, Democrats contend that the GOP is not working with them on two key issues: the Affordable Care Act extension and pocket rescissions.
“The American people are hurting in their healthcare,” said Schumer, who said Republicans want to kick the issue “down the road.” According to USA Today, approximately 24 million Americans receive their healthcare coverage through the ACA, which would expire if the latest spending goes through as-is. Schumer said President Donald Trump did not seem “aware” of some of the ramifications that could kick in as early as Oct. 1.
He also said the GOP was “adamant” on doing nothing about pocket rescissions. Per the Government Accountability Office, a pocket rescission “occurs when a president asks Congress to rescind (or cancel) funds very close to the end of the fiscal year – so close that the funds expire before they can be used for new obligations,” and they are considered illegal by experts since they bypass Congress’ power of the purse.
Still, the White House announced a “historic pocket recession package,” that “eliminates woke, weaponized, and wasteful spending,” on Aug. 29. The conservative-leaning U.S. Supreme Court has also issued a ruling that allows Trump can withhold billions in foreign aid approved by Congress through a pocket rescission, said Democrats.
“It seems really unfair to me that because the Democrats, Republicans and Trump, they can’t agree what happens, everybody else pays or pays for it,” said Schultz. “And it’s also important to point out here that during this government shutdown. Congress and the president still get paid.”
As for what the public thinks – Marist poll results released Tuesday showed that 38% would blame the GOP for a shutdown, 27% would blame Democrats and 31% would blame both parties equally.
Has this happened before?
Yes – there have been 14 government shutdowns since 1981. The most recent shutdown was in 2018, during Trump’s first term in office. It was also the longest at 35 days, according to CNN.
“I still see stories in articles about how many billions of dollars that cost people, whether it’s contractors, everyday people,” said Schultz.
Government shutdowns can also impact the country’s credit rating, which was already downgraded by Moody’s earlier this year.
“Perhaps the most significant longer-term impact of a shutdown for investors and consumers alike could stem from how credit rating agencies react to the continuing turmoil in Washington,” said Fidelity. “While markets may look past shutdowns, these firms who take a longer-term view of the government's fiscal well-being appear less willing to do so.”
So, what will happen to Social Security?
Those who already receive Social Security checks should continue to receive their payments – include those who receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and benefits for retirement, disability and survivors. That’s because funding for these programs is considered mandatory spending by law and not subject to Congressional approval.
However, those applying for benefits for the first time or those who need to contact the SSA might have a tough time, said USA Today.
“People looking to apply for and access retirement, disability or survivor benefits for the first time are likely to face extended wait times,” the outlet explained. With fewer employees actively working to process applications, review qualifications and provide necessary documentation, those seeking to renew or start receiving benefits contend with a backlog in these processes.”
Medicare benefits would continue uninterrupted, according to a report from The New York Times citing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. It said the federal government has enough money for Medicaid to fund the first quarter of the next fiscal year.
However, any processes that include manual review – such as medical assessments for disability benefits, appeals or recertifications for denied or recurring payments and benefit calculations for families of recently deceased federal employees or veterans – would likely be delayed in the event of a shutdown, USA Today said.
“We would like to reassure the public about customer service at SSA, but we cannot honestly do that – given the administration’s blatant disregard for the needs of Social Security recipients, the 70 million people who depend on the benefits they earned over a lifetime of work,” said a statement from Max Richtman, president & CE) of the National Committee to Preserve Social Security & Medicare advocacy group.
Will the government really shut down?
While it seems pretty likely as of Tuesday afternoon that lawmakers aren’t on track for a compromise, political analyst Mark Sandalow reminded Audacy station KCBS that it often seems like that right before a spending bill deadline.
“I think most people assume that there will be a shutdown,” he said. “But… I mean, having been through this a lot of times – not that a government shutdown isn’t likely – but it always looks likely.”
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