A new poll finds the Sept. 14 recall of Gov. Gavin Newsom could be closer than expected.
The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies surveyed likely voters and found that while 50 percent oppose the recall election, nearly the same amount of voters support the effort: 47 percent. The near-even split gives Newsom only a narrow three-point margin of success.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo told KNX that Republicans seem to be more excited to vote in the recall than Democrats and unaffiliated.
“There’s this widespread expectation among Democrats and even no party preference voters that Newsom will defeat the recall,” he said.
“This might be contributing to somewhat greater complacency among those recall opponents than those recall supporters.”
DiCamillo said the governor will have to get Democrats excited enough to vote if he wants to defeat the recall attempt.
Raphe Sonenshein agreed. “It doesn’t appear to be a problem at all to get Republicans to vote,” he said.
Sonenshein is the executive director of the Pat Brown Institute at Cal State Los Angeles. When it comes to Newsom's ability to increase his supporters, Sonenshein said the governor should focus on guiding the state amid the continued COVID-19 pandemic. wildfire season and other challenges.
"He has an opportunity for leadership on these crisis," said Sonenshein.
Newsom responded to the poll saying he would defeat the “partisan effort” to recall him. Newsom also said he was focusing on the work of governing during a pandemic.
“We’re going to work hard to do the work that people sent us here to do,” Newsom said.
Conservative broadcaster Larry Elder leads among the replacement candidates with 18 percent support. Elder filed a lawsuit to get onto the ballot in the hopes of replacing Newsom. He won his suit last Wednesday and will be listed among the candidates.
Elder was followed in support by former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and 2018 gubernatorial candidate John Cox. Both candidates had about 10 percent support. Reality TV star and Olympian Caitlyn Jenner has only about 3 percent support. Jenner recently suspended her campaign and travelled to Australia to film a new reality program.
Sonenshein said Elder is one to watch ahead of the election.
"The emergence of Elder will affect the race. He is leading by almost two to one over more traditional candidates," he said, citing Elder's media skills.
There are still many voters who Newsom and his opponents could persuade. Forty percent of voters are still undecided on who they would want to replace the governor.