Vice President Kamala Harris is traveling to the Bay Area Wednesday to campaign with Gov. Gavin Newsom against the Sept. 14 recall election. Analysts say high-profile Democrats inside and out of California are looking to further increase Democratic turnout, which has already exceeded expectations.
Political analyst David McCuan of Sonoma State told KNX that Harris will energize the state’s Democratic base.
“Someone like Vice President Kamala Harris is hugely important. Why? Well because she’s simpatico. She has this great, huge rapport, if you will, with Gavin Newsom. They get along. They personally like each other. All of that combination gives Gavin Newsom a boost,” said McCuan.
Harris previously canceled a planned appearance last month as the Afghanistan crisis and U.S.-led evacuations from the airport in Kabul intensified. Political columnist Phil Matier of the San Francisco Chronicle said Harris’ appreance is an important show of national support for the governor.
“One of the things here is the does Newsom beat back the recall. There’s a good chance he does if you’re looking at the latest polls and the heavy Democratic turnout, but he’s got to do more than that. He’s got to break it big time because if he just skates by it’s going to be a far cry from his slam dunk win a couple of years ago. It shows cracks in what Democratic support could be,” said Matier.
Politicians nationwide are following the election, according to USC political sociologist Mindy Romero. She told KNX that the outcome of the recall will likely impact the 2022 mid-term elections.
“What happens in California is going to be part of that larger narrative. Of course, if it’s close, or if [Newsom] is indeed recalled, it will fuel and encourage potentially other recall efforts,” Romero said.
With only six days to go to the election, the latest numbers provided by California counties show that turnout will be far higher than many predicted. According to nonpartisan firm Political Data, Inc., which collects and sells voter data, more than six million voters have already sent back their mail-in ballots. Almost 3.5 million of those returned ballots came from Democrats.
“At this huge number of 28 percent of the electorate voting, we know we’re going to have a pretty high turnout election. And the early numbers from Democrats means that Republicans have more work to do to get their voters out. Democrats are doing pretty good. They should be feeling really good about these early numbers,” Paul Mitchell, who runs Political Data, Inc., told NBC San Francisco.
He forecasted a final turnout of well over 50 percent. Analysts have agreed that a higher turnout helps Democrats and the governor, who poll watchers initially said might struggle with a lack of enthusiasm from his party. Newsom may also see support from independent voters, which tend to lean more Democratic than Republican in California, according to the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.
The White House announced that President Joe Biden will also be campaigning in California with the governor just before the election next Tuesday. Meanwhile, leading Republican recall candidate Larry Elder is set to begin a statewide bus tour with appearances Wednesday morning in the Fairfax District of Los Angeles and Venice Beach.
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