Texas voters will head to the polls Tuesday to decide who will carry their parties' torch come November.
SMU political scientist Cal Jillson said among Democrats, the more established candidates likely won't win their primary.
For example, he predicted Rochelle Garza, who lacks elected experience, will cruise past former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski in the race for the Democratic nomination for Texas Attorney General.
"Because the Democratic primary is going to be mostly activists voting, I think progressives will win reasonably consistently," Jillson said. Garza bested Jaworski in the primary 43% to 19.7%.
Jillson also said he believed state Rep. Michelle Beckley (D-Carrollton), another progressive, will defeat Mike Collier in the runoff, even though he beat her 41.8% to 30.2%.
"The activist base will not be looking for a more moderate, tested candidate. They want the fighter just like they do on the Republican side and that's more likely to be Michelle Beckley," Jillson said.
In 2018, Collier ran for lieutenant governor and lost to incumbent Dan Patrick (R) by five points. He also ran for Texas comptroller in 2014 and lost to incumbent Glenn Hegar (R).
Jillson said the possibility of Roe v Wade, a woman's right to choose, being struck down by the Supreme Court is likely driving more women to lean toward female candidates.
A widely watched Congressional race is in U.S. District 28 -- in the San Antonio area -- in which incumbent Henry Cuellar, a moderate Democrat, is being challenged by a more progressive opponent, Jessica Cisneros. Cuellar is the only Democrat in Congress that is pro-life.
"Hispanic districts in the Valley are more conservative than people generally think they are, particularly on the abortion issue, the Catholic constituency," Jillson said. "I think it's going to be close."
Jillson said he believed Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) will easily win his runoff against Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush for the Republican nomination. Paxton has been under indictment throughout his tenure and is also under investigation
He predicts state Sen. Dawn Buckingham (R) will win her Republican runoff for Texas Land Commissioner. He expected environmentalist Jay Kleberg, who is part of the King Ranch family to advance in the Democratic runoff.
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