SOUTH JERSEY (KYW Newsradio) — A recent poll finds it'll be an uphill climb for Republican Jack Ciattarelli to defeat New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy in November.
Winning big in the southern part of the state is key to a Ciattarelli victory, and Monmouth University polling institute director Patrick Murray says the Republican needs to make up some ground.
"When we look at the southern part of the state," Murray detailed, "Ciattarelli is ahead by about five points, 45% to 40% over Murphy."
He said Murphy is ahead by about 16% statewide, mostly because of a hefty advantage in North Jersey.
"It’s basically about COVID right now. That’s the top issue that voters are looking at, and they give Murphy good marks on that, in terms of how he’s handled it and in terms of moving forward," said Murray.
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No Democratic governor has won re-election in New Jersey since 1977. "This is the first time that we've seen a Democratic incumbent start out as the odds-on favorite," said Murray, who added it isn't surprising, as registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a million in the state.
"I think this is probably one of the reasons why [Ciattarelli] chose Diane Allen as his running mate," he speculated, "in the hopes that she would also have some name recognition down there in the Philadelphia media market from her time as a news anchor."
Murray said Ciattarelli would probably need to win South Jersey by 15% in order to have a shot.
"Because other parts of the state where Republicans have done well," he said, "if you go further up to the central part of the state, that has become Democratic country."