Penn researchers report disappointing results for Philly’s vaccine lottery

A story heard first on KYW Newsradio
Philadelphia vaccine lottery winner
Daniel Silva was among the 12 winners in the first of three drawings for prize money in the Philadelphia vaccine lottery, June 25, 2021. Photo credit Pat Loeb/KYW Newsradio

PHILADELPHIA (KYW Newsradio) — After three drawings over six weeks for Philadelphia’s vaccine lottery sweepstakes, Penn researchers released their findings on its success: It didn’t work.

The University of Pennsylvania funded and designed the sweepstakes using a behavioral science technique called a regret lottery. Every Philadelphia adult was eligible, but only those who had received at least a first dose of vaccine could claim the prizes, which ranged from $1,000 to $50,000.

Penn researchers studied the lottery and looked at how the incentive influenced vaccination rates.

In a paper published in the Social Science Research Network, researchers say they found no evidence of any meaningful increase — not even in selected ZIP codes where residents were 80 times as likely to win as in other parts of the city.

They acknowledge they probably didn’t fully understand why people had remained unvaccinated, but the results suggest they needed more than a financial reward to be persuaded. A bigger jackpot may have also helped, as well as better marketing and communication with community organizations.

The timing may have been off too. If they ran the lottery a couple months earlier, at the start of the vaccine rollout, they think they might have seen more of an increase.

They also concede the results are challenging to clearly and causally interpret.

“I’m not going to lie, it was disappointing,” said Philadelphia Department of Public Health spokesperson Jim Garrow.

However, he said the research is still helpful, even if only to rule out a strategy.

“We’re continuing to do outreach and try to find other incentive programs. For each individual person, it may be something different,” he said. “The people who need to get vaccinated now need that sort of door-to-door, let’s have a conversation and walk you through it, and just throwing money at that isn’t the problem for that particular population.”

Philadelphia is administering about 20,000 vaccines a week and is getting close to reaching 80% percent of the adult population with at least one dose.

The city and its partners are still testing new strategies. The Caribbean community, health department and the city’s census agency Philly counts are holding a back-to-school resource fair on Saturday from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. at Sturgis Rec Center in West Philadelphia, with free vaccines for anyone 12 and older.

On Sunday, Thomas Jefferson University is hosting a Vax Up Philly Parade from FDR Park to North Philadelphia, offering free vaccines at stops along the way. There will also be live music by The Bul Bey, Snacktime Philly and Worldwide music.

The scheduled parade route is as follows:

• 11 a.m. to 1 p.m.: FDR vaccine clinic at Asian and Latinx markets

• 12 p.m.: All parade participants call time at FDR Park, at loop just past Richie Ashburn Fields on Park Road

• 1 p.m.: Parade departs FDR for Broad Street

• 2 p.m.: Parade arrives at City Hall and marches around building

• 2:30 p.m.: Parade stop and free vaccine clinic at Dilworth Park

• 3 p.m.: Press conference at Dilworth Park

• 3:30 p.m.: Parade departs Dilworth for North Broad Street

• 4 p.m.: Parade stop and free vaccine clinic at Philadelphia OIC, 1231 N. Broad St.

Featured Image Photo Credit: Pat Loeb/KYW Newsradio