CAMDEN, N.J. (KYW Newsradio) — International mediators started another round of cease-fire talks Thursday aimed at halting the Israel-Hamas war and calming tensions in the Middle East. A Rutgers-Camden political science expert says, while a short-term agreement could work, there are still larger issues at play.
Mediators from the United States, Qatar, Egypt and Israel have spent months trying to hammer out a three-phase plan in which Hamas would release the hostages captured by Hamas in the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war in exchange for a lasting cease-fire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel.
Dr. Woj Wolfe, an associate professor of political science at Rutgers-Camden, says it’s a positive sign that these latest discussions are happening, but he doesn’t think it will resolve everything.
“You have to look at: What are the goals? And are those goals achievable?” he said.
“Israel wants Hamas gone. Hamas wants Israel gone — at the very least, they want Palestine to be internationally recognized as a territory. These are so conflicted and head-on that it's not likely that they're going to come to some sort of long-term agreement that's going to work.”
Wolfe says a lasting peace will continue to be elusive, but something more short-term, like a cease-fire in Gaza, could calm regional tensions.
“Until they figure out how to find a space where they are both willing to live with that tension, I think there's going to be limited cease-fires, and conflict will continue.”
Diplomats hope it would persuade Iran and Lebanon's militant Hezbollah group to hold off on retaliating for the killings of a top Hezbollah commander in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut and of Hamas' top political leader in a Tehran explosion.
“I don't think Iran is going to attack,” said Wolfe. “Because I'm looking at capabilities and I'm looking at numbers. That doesn't mean leaders are going to do irrational things with poor outcomes, but looking at it objectively, I don't think it's likely, and every day that passes, it is less likely that Iran is going to attack.”
He explains, there are not many entities who would benefit in the long-term from a regional war.
“Whatever they may say publicly, the countries in the region are deeply concerned that there will be, that this will turn into a hot war that could spread. It will affect the oil trade and it'll affect the global economy.”
Plus looking at this from a worldwide perspective, Wolfe says, there’s concern over safe trading, specifically around the Red Sea.
The Gaza Health Ministry claims the Palestinian death toll from the 10-month war has climbed past 40,000 people. Around 110 hostages are still believed to be in Gaza, but authorities in Israel say some of them may have died.
Both sides have agreed in principle to the plan, which President Joe Biden announced on May 31. But Hamas has proposed “amendments” and Israel has suggested “clarifications,” leading each side to accuse the other of making new demands it cannot accept.
The cease-fire talks are expected to go through Friday.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.