(SportsRadio 610) – Pour one out for DeAndre Hopkins, he's no longer with us.
No, Nuk isn't dead, but arguably the best player Bill O'Brien has had during his time in Houston will be taking his talents to Arizona.
We've heard the reasons why from O'Brien and I could say his reasoning doesn't make sense and it's hard to imagine replacing Nuk's production, but those would be opinions.
As we always do, we are just talking facts!
Before we get into facts about Deshsaun Watson's weapons post-Nuk, here's a look at Nuk's production with Watson courtesy of Dave Richards of CBS.
Here are the year-by-year percentages of targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns Hopkins accounted for during his time in Houston with Watson.
2017: 34.8% targets, 34.9% of rec, 35.3% of yds, 36.8% of TDs
2018: 32.3% targets, 33.3% of rec, 37.7% of yds, 42.3% of TDs
2019: 30.3% targets, 31.2% of rec, 30.2% of yds, 26.9% of TDs
Watson thanks DeAndre Hopkins. In Deshaun Watson's 2 healthy seasons as a starter, the Watson-Hopkins duo ranked 2nd in receiving yards and T-1st in receiving touchdowns. An unreal connection. https://t.co/3n73jsz8ET
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) March 17, 2020That's a lot of production. Wait, is that an opinion or a fact?
Without further ado, here are the facts about the remaining offensive weapons post-Nuk.
Fact No. 1: David Johnson has rushed for 100 yards only once in his last 32 starts.
1A: David Johnson has made 18 starts since he last had a 100-yard rushing performance.
1B: When the Texans open the 2020 season, assuming the season starts on time and they play on Sunday, it will have been 665 days since Johnson rushed for over 100 in a game.
1C: The last time Johnson rushed for 100 yards in a game was Nov. 18, 2018 vs Oakland. It's also the only time he has done it since the 2016 season.
1D: Outside of 2016, Johnson has rushed for over 100 yards in a game twice in his career.
Fact No 2: David Johnson has only carried the ball 20+ times in 12 of his 62 career NFL games.
We don't know how O'Brien and offensive coordinator Tim Kelly are planning on using Johnson.
However, we've heard O'Brien say Johnson is a three-down back and that he (O'Brien) is trying to win in bad weather games in January.
One of my college professors once told me that the main rule in life to finding answers is to, "follow the money."
If you follow the money you see the Texans will pay Johnson the third-highest running back salary in 2020.
Will the Texans be more of a RB committee or does BOB envision Johnson as a 20+ carry per-game guy?
If he does, then here are some stats that could be considered when projecting Johnson as a guy with that role.
2A: Carlos Hyde had 20+ carries 4X last year.
2B: Facts about the 20+ attempt games:
- Six of the 20+ attempt games came in 2016
- Rushed for over 100 in six of the 12 (four times in 2016)
- Averaged 110 yards per-game and 4.5 yards per-carry
Fact No. 3: David Johnson started his football career as a receiver.
Johnson was a wide receiver in high school and early in his college career at Northern Iowa.
Fact No. 4: Through six games last season, David Johnson had 315 receiving yards, the second most in the league for a RB, and three receiving touchdowns.
Fact No. 5: David Johnson had four receiving touchdowns in 2019, as many or more than any returning Texans wide receiver or running back.
Kenny Stills and Will Fuller also had four receiving TD's in 2019. Newly signed Randall Cobb had three, Keke Coutee had zero and running back Duke Johnson had three.
Fact No. 6: David Johnson's 80 catches in 2016 are more than Stills and Fuller have ever had in a season.
6A: Stills' career-high is 63 receptions in 2014, Fuller's is 49 in 2019.
Fact No. 7: David Johnson had 879 yards receiving in 2016, which Stills and Fuller have done once in their 11 combined seasons.
Stills' 931 receiving yards in 2014 is the only time in 11 combined seasons he or Fuller have had over 879 yards receiving in a season.
Fact No. 8: Fuller's production in his last 16 games with 7+ targets.
I used fantasy statistics courtesy of Matthew Berry of ESPN for this fact (FYI standard WR fantasy scoring uses catches, yards and touchdowns to develop points).
Per Berry:
"In his past 16 games with at least seven targets, he has 87 catches, 1,192 yards and eight TDs. That would've been WR7 (seventh best WR production) last season (ahead of Julian Edelman behind Keenan Allen)."
Fact No. 9: Darren Fells had a Texans franchise-record seven touchdowns for a tight end in 2019.
Jordan Akins added two, which was five more than the Texans tight ends combined for in 2018 when Jordan Thomas had all four TE touchdowns.
Fact No. 10: Second-year tight end Kahale Warring hasn't played a single snap in a game of NFL football.
Zero is the total number of snaps the second-year player and third-round pick (86th overall) in the 2019 NFL Draft has played in a regular or preseason NFL game.
Here was O'Brien talking about Warring last year during training camp after his first practice.
We joke a lot about Tom Herman's hydration chart, but I guarantee you @charless_94 took to it. Details like that pay off.You want a good sign for Charles? Bill O'Brien was asked about a rookie TE's return, and unprompted brought up Omenihu. His entire answer is strong. pic.twitter.com/hSSzAUl8QU
— Bob Ballou (@BobBallouSports) July 31, 2019The draft is two weeks away and who knows what the Texans will do with their picks, specifically the two in the second round.
Would you be upset if the Texans took JK Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire or D'Andre Swift if he fell instead of a wide receiver?
Fact promise ended, opinions coming...
After going through all these facts I find myself believing the Texans need a traditional, workhorse running back who can run between the tackles more than a receiver.
This is going to be a fun two weeks leading up to the draft. So much to discuss, so many possibilities and with King Bill calling the shots you never know what's coming.
Listen to In The Loop with Lopez and Landry Monday-Friday 10-2 p.m. on SportsRadio 610.
