Before we analyze why the Astros have become such a disaster with a pair of four-game losing streaks in the last 13 days, including getting swept at Minute Maid Park by Cincinnati over the weekend, let me point out I’m aware of their injury situation.
Injuries aren’t the only reason the Astros trail the Rangers by 5.5 games. And they’re not the only reason they’ve fallen one game behind the Angels and have the Mariners moving within three games of them.
And injuries aren’t the reason the Astros have an embarrassing 0-6 record in extra innings. You’d think the laws of nature would help them win just one extra-inning game, wouldn’t you?
We’ve been spoiled over the last six years in which they’ve reached the World Series three times and won two. Fans preach patience and sing “In Dusty we trust,” but considering the way the Astros are plummeting going into this week’s three-game series against the Mets at Minute Maid Park, their 39-33 record, including three victories in their last 12 games, is cause for alarm.
Now, about those injuries their die-hard fans use as excuses. Let’s start with the pitching staff. After letting Justin Verlander leave for the Mets in free agency, everyone knows the Astros’ starting rotation has been rocked by injuries – Lance McCullers Jr. lost for the season, Luis Garcia making six starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery and Jose Urquidy also making six starts and going on the injured list with no timetable to return.
Jose Altuve missed the first two months and has played in 20 games. Since Yordan Alvarez was injured, the Astros are 3-6 going into the series against the Mets that features Verlander vs. Framber Valdez on Tuesday. Michael Brantley hasn’t played this season.
Despite their injuries, the Astros still have a Big Three of Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown that’s just about as good as any in baseball. They have a combined record of 19-9. Through Sunday’s 9-7, extra-inning loss to the Reds, Javier is 7-1 (2.80 ERA), Valdez 6-5 (2.27) and Brown 6-3 (3.35). Last week, the bullpen wasted terrific performances by Valdez and Javier, who combined for one run allowed and didn’t get a victory.
Injuries have forced Dusty Baker to use J.P France, Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco as his other starters. If not for injuries, they wouldn’t be in the rotation because McCullers, Garcia and Urquidy would be healthy. But they aren’t healthy, of course.
France, Bielak and Blanco have gone above and beyond expectations. It’s not their fault the Astros have their worst 72-game record since 2016, the last season they didn’t make the playoffs and advance as far as the American League Championship Series.
The Astros were 36-36 in 2016 before finishing 84-78. Not counting the COVID-reduced 2020 season, the fewest victories they earned through 72 games was 44 in 2021. The most was 48 in 2017 and 2019. Last season, they were 45-27 through 72 games and on their way to a 106-56 record and a second World Series title.
This season is different. The Astros have had their moments, but lately, they’ve been a train wreck. Injuries are a factor, of course, but every team has them. The problem is the healthy players who aren’t hitting and pitching the way they’re capable – the way they have in the past.
The best bullpen in baseball last season has been wildly inconsistent. Ryan Pressly, Ryen Stanek, Rafael Montero and Seth Martinez haven’t pitched as well as they did last season when, as a group, the relievers were exceptional, including in the playoffs and World Series.
But not this season. Phil Maton, who was shelled in a defeat last week but bounced back Sunday, has been their most consistent reliever. This team needs more, much more, from a bullpen that can still be the best in baseball.
The inconsistency of the bullpen is scary in a bad way, but the lack of hitting by players who should be more productive has been disappointing. The Astros had 13 hits and a 5-2 lead in Sunday’s loss to the Reds, but they left 12 men on base – a lack of clutch hitting that’s been a problem this season. And their fielding and base running have become suspect, too.
Alex Bregman, who committed a throwing error Sunday, started the season in a slump, snapped out of it in May but was mired in another slump until Sunday when he had three hits in the loss to the Reds.
Jose Abreu has been better in the last two weeks, but overall, he’s been a disappointment. They desperately need for him to be the hitter he was with the White Sox – the hitter they’re paying him to be -- and that kind of improvement can’t come too soon.
Jeremy Peña hasn’t been as effective as last season when he was voted MVP in the ALCS and World Series. He had two throwing errors in one game and another one fielding against the Reds.
Alvarez, Altuve and Kyle Tucker have been the Astros’ best hitters. If they’re not going to let the Rangers run away with the AL West, Bregman, Peña and Abreu have to be consistently productive at the plate.
The hitting issues can’t be blamed on Maurico Dubón, Yainer Díaz, Corey Julks, Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers – they’ve all produced at one time or another. Díaz has been white hot lately and should be allowed to see if he can keep it up. Imagine where the Astros would be without their contributions.
One reason the Rangers are threatening to run away with the AL West under new manager Bruce Bochy, who earned three World Series rings with the Giants, has been their prodigious hitting – something foreign to the Astros without Alvarez. The Rangers have scored at least 10 runs in 16 games. The Astros have done it three times.
Going into the last game against the Reds, the Astros had a collective slash line of .244/.314/.398 with a .712 OPS. Those rankings were 18th, 21st, 18th and 21st – not one in the top half of Major League Baseball.
On Sunday, when the Astros were blowing a 5-2 lead against Cincinnati, the Rangers were overcoming a 6-0 deficit against Toronto, winning 11-7 and elevating their record to 44-27. That’s the Rangers’ best 71-game record since – you guessed it – 2016 when they won the division and advanced to the playoffs for the last time. That’s a bad sign for the Astros unless their bats stop snoozing and their bullpen starts dominating like it did last season.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Thursday on Texans Radio. He writes three columns a week and does two Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.
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