Lottery night means something to the Rockets for the first time in nine years. An NBA-long eight-year playoff streak was snapped by a nightmarish 17-55 campaign that included a 6-45 finish, a 20-game losing streak and the trade of a franchise icon. If the ping pong balls can bounce their way, the hellish six months the Rockets just endured won’t feel as bad, but no team has more at stake on Tuesday night.
Ordinarily, the team that finishes with the worst record in the NBA would be close to despondent to end up with the fourth pick in the draft, but they’ll do back flips and cartwheels at Toyota Center if that happens on Tuesday because the alternative is bleak.
The furthest the Rockets pick can fall is to fifth, but if it does they’ll swap the pick with the Oklahoma City Thunder and end up with the 18th pick instead as payment to swap Chris Paul for Russell Westbrook two years ago. The Rockets have a 52.1 percent chance of picking in the top four, which means the disaster scenario is a coin toss away.
There is a clear top four in this year’s draft, led by Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley. Both are viewed as top-end prospects, as are Jalen Suggs and Jalen Green, so if the Lottery Gods smile upon the Rockets, they can credibly tell their fanbase they have their post-James Harden foundational piece to go with Christian Wood, Kevin Porter Jr, Jae’Sean Tate, K.J. Martin as well as John Wall and Eric Gordon.
That mix isn’t winning a championship in 2022, but if it stays on the floor, which is easier said than done, it can compete in the present with a chance to grow into something special down the road. However, if the lottery comes up snake eyes, the Rockets rebuild becomes prolonged.
If a top four pick in this draft is a future all-star, the 18th pick is a rotation player, maybe. Here are the last 10 players taken number 18 overall:
2020: Josh Green
2019: Goga Bitadze
2018: Lonnie Walker
2017: T.J. Leaf
2016: Henry Ellenson
2015: Sam Dekker
2014: Tyler Ennis
2013: Shane Larkin
2012: Terrence Jones
2011: Chris Singleton
Not exactly a stellar list.
June 22 is the day the Rockets won their first NBA title in 1994, and while Tuesday won’t carry the same importance that night did 27 years ago it will go a long way in deciding how soon the team can credibly say they are headed back in that direction.