If we view Super Bowl LVIII merely as a matchup of quarterbacks -- Patrick Mahomes vs. Brock Purdy -- then it’ll be a mismatch in Kansas City’s favor. But the Chiefs and 49ers have much more going for them than just their quarterbacks.
On Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Mahomes and the Chiefs will try to defeat Purdy and the 49ers to become the first team since the 2003-2004 Patriots to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
Yes, Mahomes is the best player in the NFL coming off a sixth consecutive AFC Championship Game playing for coach Andy Reid, one of the best in league history. Mahomes is playing in his fourth Super Bowl in five years and trying to win his third ring. But the Chiefs also have an outstanding defense coordinated by Steve Spagnuolo. He’s going to his fifth Super Bowl as a defensive coordinator, tying him for the most in history with Dick LeBeau.
Spagnuolo’s defense helped Kansas City beat Miami at Arrowhead Stadium before defeating Buffalo and Baltimore on the road. That’s one wild card team and two division champions who combined for a 35-16 regular season record. The Chiefs eliminated quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
In the Chiefs’ 17-10 victory at Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game, they surrendered one field goal over the last three quarters. They demolished the NFL’s No. 1 running game that had pounded the Texans in the divisional round. The Ravens’ running backs contributed six carries for 23 yards. Baltimore finished with 81 yards rushing, primarily because Jackson ran for 54.
The star of the Kansas City show is Mahomes, of course. He hasn’t thrown an interception in three playoffs games, but he’s averaged only 239.3 yards because the Chiefs have balance and don’t beat themselves the way Baltimore and Detroit did on Sunday. When they need a clutch play, Mahomes provides it.
Mahomes and his favorite target, tight end Travis Kelce, have been exceptional. Kelce has 23 catches for 262 yards and three touchdowns in the playoffs and passed Jerry Rice for most postseason receptions. In the AFC Championship Game, Kelce and Mahomes combined for 11 catches, 115 yards and a touchdown.
If you don’t like the camera shots of Taylor Swift celebrating in a suite with Mahomes’ wife and Kelce’s mother and big brother, Jason, as well as their friends, then you should avoid Super Bowl LVIII. Swift is scheduled for a concert in Tokyo on the Saturday before the Super Bowl – or Friday over here – and will have plenty of time to get to Las Vegas to attend parties the night before the game.
The NFL knows Swift’s value when it comes to recruiting young people praying for a glimpse of Swift. The league hopes those young Swift fans might also notice a sport that may get their attention and have a growing interest to them. One company estimated the league has gotten $331 million worth of benefits from Swift’s very public relationship with Kelce. The NFL knows a good promotional product when it sees it.
Now, on the other side of the ball are the 49ers, who are trying to win their first Super Bowl since the 1994 season. They bashed the Chargers 49-26 in Super Bowl XXIX, where Steve Young threw six touchdown passes and was voted MVP. San Francisco is 0-2 in Super Bowls since that Young-ignited victory, losing to Baltimore and Kansas City. In what would be Reid and Mahomes’ first Super Bowl victory together, the Chiefs rallied to defeat Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers 31-20.
The 49ers have opened as a one-point favorite, but that could change because of the Mahomes factor. The over/under is 47.5 points.
There’s a lot to like about the 49ers. In Sunday’s 34-31 victory over Detroit, they became the first team in championship game history to overcome a 17-point deficit. They’re loaded with playmakers like running back Christian McCaffrey, receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle and a dynamic front seven. But Purdy was the catalyst in beating the Lions, who led 24-7 at halftime.
Purdy led the comeback with his arm and legs, including five rushes for 48 yards. He overcame a poor start and seemed to transport into another zone when his team needed him the most. The Lions helped by dropping passes, fumbling and failing to convert on coach Dan Campbell’s second-half decisions to go for it on fourth down. The 49ers responded with touchdown drives after both failed conversions.
San Franciso’s biggest play was Purdy’s 51-yard pass to Aiyuk when they trailed 24-10 in the third quarter. The ball went through the hands of cornerback Kindle Vidor and bounced off his facemask before Aiyuk made a diving catch. Fittingly, Aiyuk finished the drive with a touchdown pass from Purdy to close within seven.
If you’re looking for a sentimental reason to pull for the 49ers, you might consider left tackle Trent Williams, the Longview native who resides in Houston during the offseason. Williams, 35, is playing in his 14th season and his first Super Bowl. On his way to enshrinement in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, Williams would like to earn a Super Bowl ring in Las Vegas.
Even though the early odds are in the 49ers’ favor, there are a couple of things to consider: This is the fourth time the Super Bowl has featured rematches with head coaches – Tom Landry and Chuck Noll, Jimmy Johnson and Marv Levy and Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin. Something to keep in mind: The coach who won the first one – Noll, Johnson and Coughlin – also won the second one. Reid will be the first to tell us that statistic means absolutely nothing in what happens in Las Vegas.
If you want to go with the highest-paid quarterback, that’s a no-brainer. Mahomes has a $450 million contract. Purdy makes $3.7 million. Of course, he was Mr. Irrelevant. If Purdy helps the 49ers win, the only Super Bowl-winning quarterback to enter the league in a lower fashion was the undrafted Kurt Warner.
It says here this decision to pick the winner should be easy: Never bet against Patrick Mahomes. Take Mahomes, and you can take it to the bank.
During the offseason, John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Thursday on Texans Radio, also on SportsRadio 610. He writes three columns a week and does two Houtopia Football Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com.