Nats' Hellickson an early victim of analytics ball

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Photo credit Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Pitcher Jeremy Hellickson is really settling into the back end of the Washington Nationals' rotation after signing with the team late and getting a late start on his 2018 season.

Rushed through extended Spring Training in order to replace the imploding A.J. Cole, he may not have had the amount of seasoning that the organization wanted.

This is one reason why Hellickson has had a short leash for the Nats, pitching a season-high 5.2 innings on Thursday before getting the hook. He is averaging just 75 pitches in less than 5.1 innings across four starts this season and has always been lifted in the middle of an inning, even when pitching well.

This is the analytics-driven baseball that was promised under manager Dave Martinez.

"I don’t like doing it, because he’s pitching his butt off," he said of Hellickson. "But I have to think about the other 25 guys. He kept us in the ballgame. That’s all we’re asking: Keep us in the game.

"Keep us in the game, that’s all I ask. Keep us in the game, and we’ll be fine."

This is the standard operating procedure in 2018, as the game moves towards get-me-over starters and specialized bullpens. This is especially true of the back end of the bullpen, where pitchers are being limited to the situations where they perform best, most consistently.

The Nats have bailed out Hellickson before he has a chance to see the lineup a third time, because his opponents' batting average jumps from .240 the first two times through the order to .274 in his third time through. Even in instances where Hellickson is pitching well, he can expect to be lifted before he pitches into trouble.

He doesn't have to like that strategy.

"I mean, I would’ve liked a chance to get out of that," he told the media after the game. "But [Martinez] thought that was best right there. I think part of the reason is I didn’t get a real spring training in, and I never really got to six, seven innings before I left spring training. So probably taking it a little slow.

"But we won the game. That’s all that matters."

Hellickson isn't the only player to suggest some degree of skepticism over the strategy. Closer Sean Doolittle closed on his comments by saying, "Fortunately, it worked."

Martinez understands that it takes a while to change the culture and expectations of his clubhouse. He also left the door open for Hellickson to earn the benefit of the doubt in similar situations as the season wears on.

"Once we get going, once the summer gets going, he’ll get better," he said of Hellickson. "He’s been really good for five innings, he really has. I anticipate that he’ll give us some more length as the weather gets a little hotter and he gets going."

At least for now, the strategy seems to be working.

 

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