Rich Strike seemed a one-time wonder in the Kentucky Derby. An 80-1 winner who would never smell roses again.
Yet, here I am picking Rich Strike to win Saturday's Belmont Stakes in a competitive, though nondescript eight-horse field. He'll have to make up a lot of distance in the stretch to catch frontrunner and favorite We The People.
That's mostly the race – an early speedball that must prove the endurance of running the nation's longest race at 1½ miles versus a late-runner who passed 17 rivals in the Derby as the second-biggest long shot victor ever.
But, the Belmont is perfect for this type of test. Its half-mile stretch, the nation's longest, fools riders into moving early and gassing in the final yards. And that's We The People's challenge. The Arkansas-based colt won his Belmont debut by 10 lengths in the Peter Pan Stakes on May 14. Surely, local bettors will make him a 2-1 choice. His breeding suggests stamina despite a tendency for early leads.
Rich Strike was 1 of 7 before the Derby when never leading until the final strides. He's notoriously slow early and never raced over "The Big Sandy" that can sap strength. Yet, Rich Strike looks like a monster. A big, hulking horse whose career might be cut short by back problems, but off looks alone was worth a $2 flyer in the Derby.
If Rich Strike can run down We The People, or maybe the latter gasps at the end, then everyone will second guess trainer Eric Reed's decision to skip the Preakness Stakes. But, it was probably the right call as the colt was on the vet's list with back problems until Sunday. Still, a double crown winner that missed a chance at triple immortality won't look better over time.
Of course, there are several outsiders worth watching because the Belmont's length invites big payoffs. Mo Donegal closed well for fifth in the Derby despite running 10 wide on the final turn. Creative Minister was third in the Preakness despite a rough trip. Nest is a talented filly with good speed ratings. Skippylongstocking and Barber Road will break through against top horses eventually. Really, Golden Glider is the only throw out.
The odds are too short on top horses to bet multiples, so 4-1-6-5 is the play. Afterwards, this class will disperse nationally and eventually be forgotten as just another lackluster year. But when they play Frank Sinatra singing "New York, New York" the race momentarily feels immortal.
Rick Snider has covered Washington sports since 1978. Follow him on Twitter: @Snide_Remarks.