Churchill Downs won’t be overflowing with fans singing “weep no more, my lady” in a throwback to the Civil War. Indeed, the bugler’s call to the post will see only a few people watching.
But it’s still the Kentucky Derby on Saturday even if running in the strangest of times. And, it might even see a winner en route to a Triple Crown championship.
Tiz the Law is the heaviest Derby favorite since 1992 with early 3-5 odds. Not that he’s the second coming of Secretariat, but Tiz the Law faces a weaker field than he would have seen on the first Saturday in May. Instead, it’s the survivors of a 3-year-old class forced by COVID-19 to race on Labor Day weekend.
It shouldn’t be a stain on Tiz the Law’s probable victory, though. He’s 6 of 7 with one second and won the Florida Derby shortly before the Louisville race. Since then, Tiz the Law captured the Belmont Stakes, traditionally the Triple Crown’s last leg, and the Travers Stakes.
This is a legit horse. Should Tiz the Law win the Derby, he’d have a chance to become racing’s 14th Triple Crown champion in the Preakness Stakes on Oct. 3. None of the three races will have fans thanks to the pandemic, but it’s still a memorable series.
The only obstacle to Tiz the Law is now leaving post 15 after Finnick the Fierce withdrew on Friday. That’s OK, Tiz the Law typically lays off the early leaders. Look for him midway on the final turn to grab the lead and win easily.
Now, there’s no money betting a 3-5 that pays $3.20 for every $2 wagered. The triple may not even break $100, but that’s the only play.
Authentic might be the second-best runner, but his far outside starting post ruins this typical frontrunner’s chances. It’s just not his strength. He might be more of a Preakness pick. Instead, Honor A.P. will follow Tiz the Law around the track for second.
The only way for a worthwhile triple is finding a long shot for third. Enforceable has a big late kick that too often runs into traffic. A clean trip makes him worth taking third at 30-1.
And then Pimlico gets the last say in the series. It might be someone in the winner’s circle saying, “Your majesty.”
Rick Snider has covered Washington sports since 1978. Follow him on Twitter: @Snide_Remarks