Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Three weeks to go until the Buffalo mayoral primary election.
The crowded field among the Democrats includes current Acting Mayor Chris Scanlon and the Erie County Democrats' endorsed candidate, State Sen. Sean Ryan.
Those two are considered the frontrunners in the race.
"Both sides are drawing their lines, in terms of motivating voters. We'll see what happens on primary night," said Republican Strategist Carl Calabrese on WBEN. "And primaries are funny things. When you do a poll, you'll get 40%-to-50% of people saying they intend to vote. But in actuality, you get 18%-to-20% of people who tend to turn out. So, it comes down to what side is going to get out their vote and what side has the better organization."
Despite the Democratic endorsement, there appear to be red flags for Sean Ryan's campaign, according to Calabrese.
"When the petition process was completed and the candidates turned in their signatures, that's a good indication of organizational strength. Normally, conventional wisdom says the person with the party endorsement has the big advantage... yet, when the petitions came in, not only did Chris Scanlon have more signatures than Sean Ryan, he had twice as many. That's a huge red flag about the strength of an organization," Calabrese said. "We'll have to wait until Primary night to see what, if anything, Democratic party chair Jeremy Zellner
has done since that embarrassment to shore up his city organization and get out the vote."
Calabrese says that was an eye-opener to anyone who studies politics.
Ryan has also been sending out mailers to people in his senate district, who reside outside of the City of Buffalo.
That too, Calabrese says, raises a caution flag.
"When you combine that with the poor showing of petition signatures, it may very well be that they're trying to plug holes in a very weak organization," he said.
Calabrese thinks the race is going to come down to South Buffalo.
"If Chris Scanlon comes out of South Buffalo with 75% of the vote, it's going to be a big hill to climb for Sean Ryan," Calabrese noted. "Normally he would go to the African American community to make up the vote. But there are three credible African American candidates in the race, which complicates it for him."
Calabrese also reminded us that it was South Buffalo that propelled Byron Brown to a write-in victory over India Walton in 2021.
Among the other candidates as part of the Democratic primary on June 24 includes University District Councilman Rasheed Wyatt, former Buffalo Fire Commissioner Garnell Whitfield and Anthony Tyson-Thompson.
Related
