Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Support for President Joe Biden has been slipping in New York, enough to the point some are wondering if the Empire State could become a battleground state.
Nick Reisman of Politico says a number of Democrats have expressed a lot of concern about just how there has been a noticeable trend for Republicans statewide in New York.
"Democrats have been on this statewide winning streak. They control all levels of power in Albany, they control both U.S. Senate seats. But we have seen Republicans making gains in some recent election years, including back in 2022, when Gov. Hochul won her race for governor, but only by about six points, We've seen Republicans getting blown out across New York, and we have also seen Republicans make gains in some pivotal house battleground seats in New York," said Reisman in an interview with WBEN.
Reisman adds a Siena College Poll back in February showed Biden up 12 points over former President Donald Trump.
"Then we have seen over the last several months, kind of a steady drip, drip drip of support for Joe Biden kind of ebbing away in New York," Reisman said.
Plus, another poll taken before the recent debate had Biden up by eight points.
"Eight points sounds like a big cushion, but for a state like New York where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2-to-1, it really isn't," Reisman explained.
Jack O'Donnell of O'Donnell and Associates says New York is still a pretty safe Democratic state.
"I think what we're seeing is a larger issues with the Biden campaign, and with the Democratic Party," said O'Donnell with WBEN. "I do think New York and big parts of the state have changed. Trump is really doing a good job of attracting what we used to call Reagan Democrats, but especially white, ethnic, working class folks, a lot of them here in Erie County, but also a lot in Long Island."
O'Donnell warns if it gets to the point where New York is truly a battleground state, that means, in a lot of ways, the race is over. However, he doesn't believe it will come to that.
"I think when this race tightens as we head towards Election Day, when you look closely at the polls, a number of the folks who Joe Biden has been losing are Democrats. I think when it becomes not just about the personalities, and there's a much tighter focus on the policies on the plans on what Democrats want to do versus what Republicans want to do, I still think it's likely a lot of those Democrats are going to come home. They're registering their concerns with Joe Biden, but that doesn't necessarily make them Trump voters," O'Donnell noted.
GOP strategist Carl Calabrese says it's surprising to see a Democrat ahead of a Republican by single digits in a poll in New York. He believes many of the voters in New York will vote Democratic, but he says that doesn't mean New York won't be a battleground state.
"If the Democrats have to spend time and money to save New York and New Jersey, that's time and money they can spend in other battleground states like Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada," said Calabrese in an interview with WBEN. "For every dollar and every minute they spend in New York, in New Jersey, that's $1 and a minute they don't spend in those key states. And that could have a huge impact on election day."
What if Biden steps aside? Calabrese says depending on the replacement, it could get messy.
"If they were to bypass Kamala Harris, for someone else, that could set off a very nasty battle within the Democrat Party," Calabrese said. "Their most loyal constituency are African American females. If they were to bypass Kamala Harris, for someone who isn't African American and isn't a female, you could see a real problem with that, that wing of the party."
O'Donnell adds any fresh Democratic candidate who doesn't have some of the personal baggage that Biden has would be strong in New York.
"People aren't saying that they don't like Biden's policies. They're saying they're afraid that he's too old. I don't think Joe Biden is gonna get out of this race. I think it's up to him at the end of the day, and he has made it very clear that he intends to stay," O'Donnell said.