Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - As tariffs take effect against Canada by the United States on Tuesday, followed by retaliatory tariffs by Canada, there is growing concern about how the tariffs could affect tourism on both sides of the Northern border.
"It's something we're watching very closely," said Patrick Kaler of Visit Buffalo Niagara.
Kaler says there are projections for international travel, but it really kind of comes down to three different areas.
"The overall sentiment to travel, which we already saw happening in the month of February when the tariffs were originally announced, will probably be that Canadians were not going to be coming over. Then looking at the economic effects, with the slower U.S. economic growth, coupled with what will probably be likely Canadian recession, that's also going to probably constrain travel," Kaler explained with WBEN. "And then our exchange rate, with a strong U.S. dollar compared to that of Canadians, that's also going to dampen their overall demand for travel."
U.S. Travel predicts U.S. inbound visits will most likely be down 5.1% overall on international inbound travel, and that spending will be down about 11%.
Kaler says the exchange rate ranges from 35%-to-40% percent in America's favor. He says that could deter Canadians from crossing into New York.
That exchange rate could mean more U.S. visitors to Niagara Falls, Ontario.
"We're always pleased to share the high value propositions that our merchants offer on this side of the border," said Janice Thomson of Niagara Falls Tourism in Ontario. "Yes, the exchange is in our favor, and also it's the generations of visitors that we've enjoyed between the two countries."
She says crossing the border at Niagara Falls is like crossing the road.
Thomson notes the tariffs are not something at this level she's faced before, so the impact has yet to be determined.
"Tourism, over the years, always rides the wave of the economy, and when something like these new tariffs are introduced, and there could be a negative effect on the economy of either or both of our countries, it could very well impact the number of people who cross the border and come to Niagara Falls," Thomson added.
Thomson says she likely will be seeing Canadians exploring other travel opportunities, whether they stay within the country or perhaps they travel to Europe.
"Everyone is looking at their options, but it's very, very early days. So I think at this point, it's all sort of a guessing game," Thomson said with WBEN.
John Percy of Destination Niagara also says it's too early to tell what the impact tariffs will have on tourism.
"Our tourism products, even though they're very intangible, they're not a tangible product. With them being so intangible, are they going to be affected?" pondered Percy with WBEN. "Our food's going to be affected, other products that are used within our industry that could raise prices. I think it's still too early to tell, but there could be a snowball effect as this continues on."
Percy says there's already a groundswell with the social impact of the tariffs.
"I think people have been told not to travel to the U.S., or don't travel to the U.S., even by their government, saying, 'Don't travel, don't support the U.S.' I think that creates a social groundswell that people could just not travel at all to the U.S.," Percy noted.
According to Percy, tourism from Canada has dropped in recent years, as Niagara Falls thrived on shoppers from North of the border.
"I don't know if as a Canadian government or our shopping center developers or retail developers that really got very smart and over the years have created outlet malls and brought in a lot of U.S. brands into the Canadian market, that has impacted us greatly, because we were the No. 1 shopping destination," Percy said.
But Percy says Canadians will still come down to the U.S. to shop at Wegmans and Target, which do not have outlets in Canada.
Tariffs took effect Tuesday on Mexico and China as well.