Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Could it be that gas stations across Western New York will soon see prices at the pump increase once again?
While average gas prices in Buffalo have not changed in the last week, the national average price of gas has risen four-and-a-half cents per-gallon in the last week, averaging $3.07 per-gallon on Monday.
According to GasBuddy, the national average is down a touch over $.04 per-gallon from a month ago, and stands a little more than $.41 per-gallon lower than a year ago.
GasBuddy's head of petroleum analysis, Patrick De Haan, says depending on where one is across the country, some gas prices have gone up, some of them have inched down.
"This is kind of a quiet time of the year for gasoline prices, though, there were some refinery outages in the last couple of weeks related to that extremely cold weather that has pushed prices up in some areas of the country," said De Haan in an interview with WBEN on Monday. "By-and-large, this is the time of year we're on the cusp of starting to see the seasonality in gas prices return. Gas prices [are] likely to start going up more so in February when that seasonality kicks into high gear. Refineries start doing maintenance, demand for gasoline starts to increase, and we also begin the transition to summer gasoline."
Prices in the Buffalo region are nearly $.16 per-gallon lower than a month ago, and stand nearly $.12 per-gallon lower than a year ago. De Haan believes that lull in gas prices locally could last around 2-3 more weeks before prices at the pump could start to increase.
"Traditionally, gas prices start to go up in mid-February, could be earlier if there are aggravating factors," De Haan said. "Some of those factors that we're keeping an eye on include what happens in the Middle East. More recently, U.S. troops have come under attack, so that certainly could be an escalation that could impact, eventually, the price of oil. There have also been Houthis attacks on vessels in the Red Sea carrying crude oil, those could be a situation to watch as well. So there's a lot of potential here, but so far, none of its really made a drastic impact on the market. But that could change in the next couple of weeks before we get into that seasonality."
When it comes to the long-term outlook for gas prices in Western New York and across the nation, De Haan says understanding the seasonality of gasoline is critical in understanding how gas prices will fluctuate.
"Demand and fundamentals start to shift in the spring as Americans start to drive more, that pushes gasoline demand up. Combined with the transition over to summer gasoline, which is more expensive, also pushes gas prices up. That's why in a normal year, gas prices typically go along with the seasons," De Haan explains. "During spring, prices spring up. They tend to level off shortly after Memorial Day, but they're still subject to hurricane season. Gas prices really are the highest for the duration of the year in May or April. After that transition to summer gasoline is made, supply builds up over the course of the summer that helps push prices down. And prices really from there, unless there is a hurricane, they tend to ease up. Then they drop more noticeably in the fall, that's when Americans start driving less, we start switch back to cheaper winter gasoline."
As for what to expect in gas prices over the course of 2024, De Haan tells drivers to expect prices to feel very similar to what was felt in 2023.
"Gas prices could eventually hit that $4 a gallon mark though, I'm hopeful we'll be able to avoid that again this year. But again, a lot of wild cards - the Middle East, the economy, the Federal Reserve with interest rates - there's a lot of wild cards that could eventually cause prices to be a little bit either higher or lower than what we're expecting."