Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - After 19 years in Washington, D.C. serving the people of Western New York, Congressman Brian Higgins' tenure in the nation's capital is over after officially leaving office in the 26th Congressional district of New York this past Friday.
Higgins vacates his NY-26 seat in the House of Representatives to officially take over as President and CEO of Shea's Buffalo Theatre.
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With Higgins' resignation from Congress now official, the wait is on for New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to call for a special election to take place to fill the NY-26 seat for the remainder of the term, which ends in December 2024.
"The timeline is with the resignation going in officially [this past] Friday, the Governor has 10 days from that date to call a special election. So perhaps by the end of this week or, at the latest, by the beginning of next week, she'll call the special election," said Ken Kruly from PoliticsAndStuff.com. "The special election can happen no sooner than 70 days from the day she calls it, and it could be up to 80 days. So we're probably looking at the special election [taking place] sometime approximately the end of April."
With this opening for NY-26 being known for a while now, Kruly feels the call for a special election from Gov. Hochul should come sooner rather than later, potentially in the next 2-3 days.
Gov. Hochul is also required by law to call for the special election in the 10-day timeframe. That law was changed following the resignation of Chris Collins (NY-27) in October 2019 that didn't see a special election being called for his seat in Congress by former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo until the following February.
More than three weeks ago, the Erie County Democratic Committee selected New York State Sen. Tim Kennedy as their endorsed candidate to succeed Higgins for the NY-26 seat in Congress in a special election. That means if he happens to win the special election, he would then have to win two more elections later this year - the primary and general elections - in order to serve in Washington for the next term starting January 2025.
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In the weeks following Higgins' announcement of his impending resignation from Congress, there was plenty of speculation into the potential names that would run for the NY-26 seat. Two of the more prominent names, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz and Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown, have both formally announced since they will not pursue the vacancy left by Higgins in Washington.
So who could also be in contention to run against Kennedy on the Democratic side for NY-26 come the primary election slated for June?
"There's a gentleman by the name of Mohammed Alam who has filed a committee with the federal government to run in that election. I don't know how that will be pursued, I'm not familiar with the man. Nate McMurray certainly has expressed an interest, but other than that, I really haven't heard of any names," Kruly said.
Kruly adds that as of right now, he has also not heard of a Republican candidate that would be available to run for NY-26 in November's general election. That is also something Republican strategist Carl Calabrese has not heard, in terms of a name or a consensus choice within the party for a candidate.
"That's because it's such a blue, Democrat district," said Calabrese in an interview with WBEN. "Now, having said that, if I were chairman of the party trying to recruit a candidate, my argument to that person would be, 'Yes, it is a very Democrat district, no doubt about that, but this is a special election in February. Turnout is going to be key, and we have to assume it's going to be low.' If there ever was a chance for Republicans to win an election in this district, it would be an election held in February. That would be my argument, my pitch to a Republican or potential Republican candidate."
Calabrese adds that would even make it tough to recruit a Republican candidate, because even if they are successful in winning the special election, they might have a very short-lived tenure in Congress if they happen to lose in the general election in November.
There's also a possibility going into the special election this year that there's no Republican candidate that runs for the NY-26 seat in Washington. However, Calabrese feels it wouldn't hurt to have a particular candidate run now, and then take the experience from the special election into a run for the seat in November.
"If you're the chairman of the party trying to recruit a candidate, you would make that argument that, 'Look, run now and get your name known. Learn what it's like to run a campaign, and then take that experience and use it in November,'" Calabrese explained. "Again, it's going to be a tough haul in November, but even if you were to lose that, you now have established yourself as a name. And if you've run a good campaign, that means something to Republicans in the future, in terms of other seats that might be more competitive within this district for a Republican to win. So there's lots of ways to persuade somebody, even short of an outright victory.
"You talk about the future, you talk about them getting set up, getting established, getting some IOUs from party leaders so later on, if a seat comes up in that district at the town level, at the county level, at the state level, you might be given preference because of what you did for the party in this particular race."
While Calabrese didn't have anyone in mind that could be a viable option to run for NY-26 in either election, he believes the first thing a party chair or search committee would do is go into the district and look at the town level for candidates that have had previous success at the polls.
"I would say, 'Who are the town board members? Who are town supervisors? Town clerks? Are there any county legislators in that district on the Republican side that have run campaigns and have won at the local level to, at least, start the process off with some experience under their belt, in terms of the dynamics of the campaign?' That's where I would go, first-and-foremost, somebody who's got some political experience, and hopefully some success at the polls," Calabrese said.
Barring that, Calabrese also brought up a potential option for Republicans from the private sector.
"I would look for someone totally out of the mold to say, 'It's time for a change in Washington. We don't need political professionals anymore. I'm a business person that brought up business, I've done it successfully. That's the kind of mentality we need in Washington,'" he said.
While a victory for the Republican party may seem like a daunting task in a very Democratic district, Calabrese feels it's still not impossible.
"In [the special election], what you would need is complacency on the Democrat side, in terms of organization and voter turnout. You would have to hope they're going to be a little laxed, overconfident, they know they've got the numbers, they know that they got the political organization, and they just don't put the full effort into getting the vote out. That's one way for a Republican to win," Calabrese said.
"In the general election, you're going to have to hope for a combination of a low turnout of Democrats, and also maybe some real hot button issues that can get Independents and enough Democrats to flip to get you elected. Right now, that hot button issue would be immigration, followed by the economy. Those are two issues I would think a Republican, whoever that Republican may be, is going to hammer away at come November, and try to get those Independents and flip enough Democrats that when added to the Republican enrollment, you might be able to win an election."