Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - It was a long-awaited announcement from Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (NY-21) on Friday with her intentions of running for governor in New York in next November's gubernatorial election.
Related
But what kind of shot does Stefanik have at winning the Governor's Office in one of the bluest states in the nation?
Local Republican strategist Carl Calabrese doesn't believe Stefanik's announcement last week surprised anyone. He strongly feels she is going to be a very good candidate for the Republican party.
"I'd give her a rating of an 'A list' candidate," said Calabrese in an interview with WBEN.
As for Albany insider Jack O'Donnell from O'Donnell and Associates, he feels it's game on for the state capital.
"I think we're going to have a real active, a real battle royale here in New York," said O'Donnell with WBEN. "Elise Stefanik is a very well-respected member of Congress, we have seen her in hearings, we have seen her as a fierce defender of the president. We've seen her take down presidents of universities. She's a fighter, and is a heck of a fundraiser, so I think she's going to put a tough campaign together. But at the same time, Gov. Hochul is a fighter. You saw her campaign was ready with their own statement, their own video attacking Stefanik, tying her to the president. It's going to be an interesting campaign to watch."
Calabrese says there were two instances over the recent months that really showcased Stefanik's toughness, intelligence and aggressive political nature.
"The first time was when she had those three Ivy League college presidents in front of her committee, and she was questioning about the anti-Semitic activities on their campuses, and if it violated their codes of conduct in the Civil Rights Act and so on, so forth. They were all tied up, they couldn't answer, they wouldn't answer," Calabrese explained. "In fact, if I recall, two out of the three had to resign because of the way they responded or did not respond to the Congresswoman."
The second such instance was when current New York Gov. Kathy Hochul went to Washington, D.C. back in June to appear before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee on claims that her policies enabled migrants to commit violent crimes.
"[Stefanik] was asking [Hochul] if she knew certain names. These were all names of crime victims in New York City that had suffered terrible, terrible attacks by criminals, including the woman who was burned to death on the subway. Kathy Hochul had no idea who these people were, and somebody said she had a look in her eye like a deer in the headlights who didn't know whether to run away or get run over," Calabrese noted.
However, Calabrese's real exposure to Stefanik came during an event in Western New York this past summer.
"I heard her speak at a fundraiser that Congressman [Nick] Langworthy had last June, and I'll tell you, I was impressed," Calabrese recalled. "I've heard lots of political speeches - good, bad and ugly - and she went on for 25 minutes without notes and gave a spell-binder of a speech. And I and everybody in that room is impressed. So if you're looking for an 'A list' candidate who's going to be an aggressive 'take the issues' to Kathy Hochul and the Democrats, it's Elise Stefanik."
Stefanik is the first Republican candidate to announce her intentions to run for New York governor ahead of next year's election. While there could be other GOP candidates who wish to run, Calabrese feels Stefanik will get most of the support from Republicans in New York.
"There are a couple of county executives of large counties that have been mentioned in the past, but I've got a feeling the party leadership is going to solidify around Elise very quickly, and anybody who decides to challenge her is probably going to be facing an uphill race and in danger of being accused of dividing the party when it can't afford to be divided in the state where there's over 3 million more Democrats and Republicans," Calabrese said. "You can't rule it out, but at this point, you watch for party leaders across the state - at the town and county and at the state level - to get behind her quickly."
O'Donnell also doesn't feel Stefanik will face any type of competition for the governor's office from another Republican in New York.
"There has been some interest from Bruce Blakeman, the newly re-elected county executive of Nassau County. But I think part of Stefanik's announcement was to really clear the field," Stefanik explained. "We've heard in the past she is likely to have the support of President Trump. It's really tough to run in a Republican primary without the support and against the support of President Donald Trump."
Meanwhile, Calabrese expects Hochul to run for re-election on the Democratic ticket, while it is expected she will be challenged by, at least, her Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado in a primary election. How does he feel Stefanik could stand up to either candidate?
"Assuming Kathy Hochul wins - right now I would think that's where the smart money would be, given the power of her incumbency - it's still going to be an uphill fight, no matter," Calabrese said. "You could be an 'A-plus-plus-plus' candidate for the Republican party, and in this state, time has proven if you have a 'D' after your name, you tend to get elected, much like California."
When analyzing the likely matchup between Hochul and Stefanik, O'Donnell feels Hochul has the early advantage.
"New York State has a Democratic enrollment edge, the governor is the governor, and all the advantages that come with being an incumbent. She is also a tough fundraiser," O'Donnell noted. "She has won several statewide races now, both for Lieutenant Governor and now for governor, so she's going to be tough to beat. But I think Elise Stefanik will give her a run for her money."
Having said that, though, Calabrese looks back at the run Lee Zeldin put up in the 2022 gubernatorial race against Hochul, where he only lost that race by five or six points.
"He way overperformed the enrollment numbers. Many people think if the campaign had gone another week, he may have pulled it out," Calabrese noted. "A big reason was because Kathy Hochul totally misplayed the crime issue, and downplayed it and allowed Lee Zeldin to, really, have his way with it and drive home that message that he was the better, stronger law and order candidate. Now, we'll have to see what happens this time."
Calabrese has not been impressed with the governor's political skills, and feels it's possible issues could arise during the campaign this upcoming year that would allow Stefanik take advantage and make the same kind of progress against the governor that Zeldin did.
"But again, having said that, don't let anybody fool you that it's going to be easy to beat a Democrat governor candidate - whether it'd be Kathy Hochul or Delgado or anybody else - in the State of New York, which has become probably the second-bluest state in the country, only behind California," Calabrese acknowledged.
The last Republican governor in New York State was George Pataki, who served in office in Albany from 1995-2007. Calabrese feels another Republican governor in New York would signify a "sea change" in the political picture of New York State.
"It would send reverberations through the entire country's political establishment that a Republican could get elected in New York. And if she did get elected, she would immediately rise to the potential of a presidential candidate," Calabrese added. "It's always been the case that New York governors - Republican or Democrat - have been considered in the top tier of potential presidential candidates. If she pulled off a win like that, you would see her name being mentioned as a possible candidate in the future. So we'll just have to wait and see what happens, but it would be a political earthquake that would register a 10 on the political Richter scale, if she pulled off that type of upset victory in this state at this time."
As for O'Donnell, he feels a Republican governor in New York would be a statement for a party that has continued and accelerated its realignment.
"We have seen a fair amount of registered Democrats who are Trump supporters, Trump voters. You see some of that on Long Island, we've seen that over the last couple of years in some of the suburbs of Erie County. For a Republican to win, you need some of that to really accelerate, especially in the suburbs of New York City where a lot of the votes and the turnout will be in a statewide election," O'Donnell noted. "The second part of the answer to that question, the other thing that is true is since George Pataki was governor, we have more than a million less people in Upstate New York. I think that's a real factor, and limiting factor for Republicans running statewide."