Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Historically, in recent decades in the United States, it's the hot summer days that tend to stress overseers of our electric grids as surging energy demand on the sweltering summer days cause blackouts for some. However, the electric demand in winter is quickly becoming an equivalent, and eventually greater, concern.
According to a report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, by 2033, the rise in winter electricity demand, compared with the current level, is expected to exceed growth in demand compared to summer.
In addition, a New York Times article writes that The North American Electric Reliability Corporation believes that winter electricity use could surpass summer demand in New York and other Northeastern states within six years.
Trends that Dave Bertola with National Grid say correlate with what they've been looking at since New York lawmakers continue to convert the state to a more electric state of mind.
"The peak energy demand is projected to shift to the winter," Berola tells WBEN. "By 2050, the future electric network in New York must meet customer demand and is forecasted to be more than three times higher than it is today. New York's electric system experiences peak demand in the summer, but again, as we as we shift towards more of this clean energy transition, the peak will shift to the winter."
Bertola references the shift to electric vehicles. All sales or leases of new light-duty passenger vehicles in New York must be "zero-emissions" vehicles by the year 2035.
"By 2035, it's anticipated that 1.5 million electric vehicles will be charged and stored in garages or installed at buildings across National Grid's New York service territory," Bertola mentions.
We asked Bertola what they think is the largest contributor to the increasing demand of the grid is during wintertime.
"New York State has a goal of using 70% renewable energy by 2030. And projected that anywhere from 1 million to 2 million homes will need to be electrified with heat pumps by by then. By 2030, [New York State is] looking to have around 3 million zero-emission vehicles on the road. So that definitely is going to be what, if anything, leads for that shift from summertime to peak demands to winter."
So, can the grid handle the changes that are upcoming? Not in their current states. But as we know, New York State is looking to make large investments in making their electrification agenda become a reality.
"Meeting the customer needs requires scaling up and building out our networks that is to a level that we haven't seen since they were first built, and we're going back 100 years," Bertola says. "National Grid is preparing for this future electric network and this transition and we're focusing on our mission of continuing to provide great service. And it really needs to be affordable."
How is National Grid upgrading?
"We're looking at planning 600 miles of new and upgraded transmission lines, and at least 45 upgraded in new substations in the coming years, all to create this upgraded network to meet this demand. And as we're doing so, we're looking to create a network that's smarter, stronger and cleaner."