Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Early voting begins Saturday for the special election to fill the vacancy left by former Congressman Brian Higgins in the 26th Congressional district.
Democrat Tim Kennedy, currently a State Senator, is being challenged by Republican Gary Dickson, who is serving as West Seneca Town Supervisor.
"All elections are about turnout, but even more so with special elections," said
Republican Strategist Carl Calabrese. "It's very difficult to get people out to vote when it's not November. The X factor in a special election is which side will have the better ground game to get their vote out."
The district serves half of Erie County and a portion of Niagara County.
Going a little deeper, Calabrese said the district is 2-to-1 Democrat. It includes five cities that are heavily democrat, including, Buffalo, Lackawanna, Niagara Falls, City of Tonawanda and City of North Tonawanda.
"Those cities tend to have effective organizations to get out the vote. But curve balls do get thrown. It's certainly possible that in a special elections like this, low turnout by democrats, could affect the election," Calabrese said.
Dickson was asked during an interview on WBEN Thursday, if he were to lose the special election, would he run again for the seat in the general election?
"We're focused on the special election right now," he said. "If I win, then obviously the answer is yes. If I don't win, we'll make that decision afterwards."
Calabrese said there are two schools of thought on that question.
"One is that your name is already out there. You've put together an organization. Just carry it into the fall. The other thought is that Gary Dickson has a future. he's an incumbent town supervisor. He doesn't need to lose twice in a row. He doesn't need that reputation. It will ultimately be his decision. It wouldn't surprise me if he took a pass on the November election," said Calabrese.
Early voting starts April 20 and runs through April 28. There will be no voting on Monday, April 29. The special election will be held on April 30.
We invited State Senator Tim Kennedy to join WBEN Thursday, but he turned us down.