Buffalo. N.Y. (WBEN) - Forecast confidence is increasing as a weather system sets the stage for a lake effect snow event across the Western New York region, with the bullseye being across much of the more populated areas of Erie County.
A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for ALL of WNY, with the exception of Allegany County, Sunday evening through Wednesday.
"The snow really won't become better organized until later on tonight," National Weather Service meteorologist Steve Welch tells WBEN. "It starts to pick up in intensity, especially tomorrow(Monday) morning."
Blowing and drifting snow will be a potentially significant issue during the period in spots where the lake effect sets up.
NWS forecasters say the current placement of the lake band looks to be mainly northeast of the lake Monday morning with a southward shift of the band through the late morning and into the afternoon.
The lake band will then focus east of the lake, over the central and southern portions of Erie County, far northwestern Chautauqua & Cattaraugus counties and most of Wyoming County through most of the day Tuesday with some oscillations north.
"That lake band will start out and become better organized northeast of Lake Erie, even as far north as Niagara County during the (Monday) morning timeframe, and then in the afternoon that lake band will drop south and will focus over central-southern Erie County, such as the southtowns and slightly south of there," Welch adds.
The band will slowly shift north late Tuesday into Tuesday night, and then dissipate Wednesday morning.
Accumulations
The main strip of greatest snowfall amounts looks to be across the Buffalo Southtowns into NW Wyoming and SW Genesee counties where up to 20 inches of snow is expected. Outside of these areas, a solid 6 to 12 inches is possible for far northern and southern Erie County and extreme northwest Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.
Snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour will be possible at times with this lake effect band, including as it drops south across the Buffalo metro area and far northern Erie County on Monday morning.
Frigid
Temperatures Monday night will lower towards zero inland and to the single digits near the Lakes. Brisk westerly winds will result in wind chills of 10 below to 20 below Monday night. The western Southern Tier is the area most likely to feel sub -15 wind chills. These wind chill values will only improve to zero to 10 below Tuesday and Tuesday night as the wind starts to lighten.
Stay tuned to NewsRadio 930 WBEN for the latest forecast details and check back here for the latest on-demand.
WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 10 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph creating blowing and drifting snow and at times white out conditions.
* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, and Genesee Counties.
Greatest snow accumulation will be found across southern Niagara, southwestern Orleans, northern Erie and western Genesee counties.
* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Wednesday. Significant snow accumulation will occur tonight through Monday, and again Tuesday into Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel will be very difficult in deep snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday morning through the Wednesday morning commutes. Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect snowband oscillate with varying intensities and snowfall amounts over the area. Snowfall rates 2 inches per hour tonight through Monday, and again Tuesday through Tuesday evening. Wind chill values zero to 10 below zero Monday night through Tuesday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.
WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 3 PM EST WEDNESDAY
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations 10 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph creating blowing and drifting snow and at times white out conditions.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie Counties. Greatest snow accumulation across the northern Chautauqua Ridge, Boston Hills and Buffalo Southtowns.
* WHEN...From 7 AM Monday to 3 PM EST Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous and potentially life-threatening. Travel will be very difficult in deep snow covered roads. Areas of blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will impact the Monday evening through the Wednesday morning commutes.
Gusty winds will down tree branches and cause isolated power outages.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect lake snowband to oscillate with varying intensities and snowfall amounts over the area. Snowfall rates 2 inches per hour Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
Wind chill values five to 15 below zero Monday night through Tuesday night.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.