Vikings must avoid pre-bye letdown vs. Broncos after huge win in Dallas
The game before the bye week always made me extra nervous as an NFL team exec.
Will the Vikings players be totally focused this week in practice and on Sunday with the task at hand—beating the Denver Broncos to reach 8-3? Or are they thinking too much about their bye week getaways to head back home or to warmer destinations as so many Minnesotans do when the weather turns cold?
There’s also some concern of a letdown in facing the 3-6 Broncos following the thrilling Sunday night, national TV win in Dallas that was the biggest Vikings win since the Minneapolis Miracle against the Saints in the playoffs two years ago.
This is the kind of week where the coaches must emphasize the importance of no letdown and a good home performance at U.S. Bank Stadium where the Vikings are 4-0 this season. Coach Mike Zimmer is talking up the Broncos in saying “Denver is a really good football team. Every game they’ve played, the score has been within seven points or less except one. They’ve got a really talented defense, No. 4 in the league. Offensively, their runners are really good. We’re going to have our hands full.”
Good coach speak, Coach Zim, and yes any NFL team is capable of pulling the upset as happened to the 7-1 Saints at home against 1-7 Atlanta last Sunday. But the truth is this is a game the Vikings should win and must win in order to keep the positive momentum going from the Dallas victory.
Here are five keys to the Vikings getting the win on Sunday:
1.Win it with the running game and defense: Dalvin Cook is nine yards from his first thousand yard season. Give the NFL’s leading rusher the ball early and often against the No. 17 rush defense. As Cook gets rolling—along with perhaps the NFL’s best No. 2 back in Alexander Mattison—then mix in the Vikings excellent play action passing game on occasion. Denver will likely be missing a fine starting corner in former Bear Bryce Callahan so there should be opportunities for a few downfield strikes to Stefon Diggs. No need to play Adam Thielen this week unless he’s truly 100% as he can rest his hamstring this week and over the bye to get ready for a big Monday night game in Seattle on December 2.
2. Keep protecting the ball, Kirk: Cousins has not thrown an interception or lost a fumble over the past four games, the first time he’s done that over such a stretch in his career. Von Miller’s sack total is down (4) but he’s among the league leaders in pressuring the quarterback. Broncos Head Coach Vic Fangio gave Cousins and the Vikings offensive line fits last year as Chicago’s defensive coordinator and the Denver pass defense ranks No. 4. So it’s critical that Cousins protects the ball. Heavy use of screen passes to Cook and quick throws to tight ends Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith Jr. should be in this week’s game plan along with the heavy run emphasis.
3. Vikings D needs to dominate Denver’s O: This game plays right into the Vikings strength as a defense. They’re better against the run than the pass lately especially in holding Cowboys’ star Ezekiel Elliott to 47 yards on the ground. Phillip Lindsay is a nice story as the first undrafted running back to make the Pro Bowl as a rookie which he did last season and he has 584 yards rushing with a 5.0 average this season. But he’s not as good as Elliott so the Vikings should shut him down too.
Then they can unleash the pass rush against the NFL’s No. 28 passing attack. Denver has allowed 30 sacks (eighth most) and the crowd noise will help the defense to torment Denver quarterback Brandon Allen in his second career start with Joe Flacco on the injured list. Denver right tackle Ja’Wuan James has a knee problem so if he plays hurt or sits out, it could open the door for a big game for Minnesota’s top sacker Danielle Hunter. Zimmer loves to throw lots of blitzes at inexperienced QBs and that will be the case this week. The Vikings corners have had a rough past two weeks at K.C. and Dallas. They’re a concern going forward when facing strong passing teams but that’s not the case with the Broncos so this is a good week for the corners to regain some confidence.
4. Beware of a good kick returner in Dontae Spencer: Dan Bailey should kick off deep in the end zone to avoid returns by Spencer who has a 29 yard average. And Britton Colquitt needs some good hang time to force fair catches by Spencer. For the Vikings, Ameer Abdullah is averaging 29.2 yards per kickoff return so perhaps he’ll break a long one.
5. Hey Gary Kubiak, tell the Vikings players how much you’d like to beat your former team: He played nine years in Denver as John Elway’s backup QB and then coached 11 years as an assistant before his two seasons as Broncos head coach that included a victory in Super Bowl 50. Kubiak worked in Denver’s personnel department the past two seasons and wanted to return to coaching on Fangio’s staff but he was not given the opportunity. Thus he ended up on Zimmer’s staff as assistant head coach/offensive advisor and has played a key role in helping Kevin Stefanski run the offense and institute the zone blocking scheme that has led to the Vikings third ranked rushing attack (with a big boost from Cook of course). A win over Denver would be sweet for Kubiak.
The pick—Vikings roll again at home: I think the Vikings must win their four remaining home games and split their final two on the road to have a chance to win the NFC North at 12-4 over the Packers. A victory over Denver while the Packers are on a bye coupled with a Packers loss at San Francisco next Sunday during the Vikings bye would leave the teams tied for the division lead at 8-3.
So Minnesota can’t afford to slip up this week. I see the Vikings dominating this game with another strong performance from Cook, some contributions from Cousins and the passing game and the defense forcing several turnovers while sacking Allen at least five times.
The Vikings have won all four home games by double digits and have held the opponents to an average of 14 points per game. That trend should continue and I say the Vikings coast to a 27-13 victory.
Around the NFL Observations:
1.Three of last year’s NFC division winners are in trouble—the 4-5 Bears, 5-4 Rams and 5-4 Cowboys. Chicago heads to L.A. for a Sunday night game with the Rams that could well be an elimination game. With the Bears looking up at the Packers and Vikings in the NFC North and the Rams chasing the 49ers and Seahawks in the NFC West, there’s little margin for error. The Cowboys are now tied with the Eagles for the top spot in the NFC East and Philly has the easier schedule the rest of the way.
2. Russell Wilson gave his MVP candidacy another boost as he led the Seahawks to an overtime road victory that gave the 49ers their first loss. Wilson passed for 232 yards and ran for 53 yards against the league’s No. 2 defense. He’s next on the schedule for the Vikings after Denver and then their bye week and Wilson and Company will provide another tough prime time test for Cousins and Minnesota.