If you live in the Twin Cities, you might be staring out the windows of our home at a very bare and brown lawn. With just two weeks remaining before Christmas Eve, those dreams of a white Christmas face odds that are getting long.
It's more than a classic song from Bing. A white Christmas for most of us helps set the mood for holiday celebrations (even if they are likely going to be limited in 2020).
Before we face the slim chances of significant snow before Christmas, let’s look back historically. How often do we see that blanket of white when we come tearing down to the tree Christmas morning? It really depends on what part of the state you live in.
The Minnesota DNR has created a probability map that gives a percentage to the entire state.
From the Twin Cities north, it’s pretty good odds. From the southern edge of Hennepin and Wright Counties, there’s a 75% chance of snow for Christmas and those numbers go up as you head north. And once you the Mille Lacs Lake area, it jumps to 90%.
Do you insist on snow for Christmas? Good news if you’re willing to head to Minnesota’s northern lakes.
In parts of Cass County in north-central Minnesota, and St. Louis County (Duluth and straight north towards Canada) there is a 100% chance of a white Christmas. The entire north-central and Arrowhead regions of Minnesota see 95% chances. In fact, northern Minnesota is one of the few non-alpine climates in the U.S. where a white Christmas is almost a sure bet.
Then there are the slimmer odds in southern Minnesota, especially in the southwest.
Lincoln, Lyon, Pipestone and Murray Counties, in far southwest Minnesota, see the state’s lowest odds of snow at just 55%. Redwood, Brown, Nicollet and Sibley Counties, bordering on the Minnesota River Valley to the southwest of the Twin Cities are only in the 60% range for holiday snow.
News Talk 830 WCCO Meteorologist and 3:00-6:00p.m. host Paul Douglas says the odds are not looking good for snow prior to Christmas this year.
"My father taught me that you can prove anything with statistics," says Douglas. "Statistically, looking backwards in time, roughly 80% of Christmas Days in the Twin Cities are "white", with at least an inch of snow on the ground. That's factoring in data since the late 1800s - recent Decembers have trended warmer, with more erratic and unpredictable snowfall patterns. It's no longer a slam-dunk to have snow on the ground Christmas morning."
As Paul says, what actually defines a white Christmas is loosely based on having one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.
We've been very warm since Thanksgiving in case you haven't noticed. Paul says a dropoff is coming but it might be too little, too late.
"After 52F on Wednesday, we will cool off a bit closer to average, but the latest NOAA GFS weather model still shows temperatures consistently above average through December 23," Douglas says. "It may be marginally cold enough for snow, but moisture is still lacking. A few feeble Alberta Clippers may not get the job done. For significant snow we need a steady supply of cold air in place AND a storm track running roughly from Des Moines to Eau Claire. The odds of that happening over the next two weeks are slim to nil. If we do see a white Christmas it may come right down to the wire, but personally, I'm not getting my hopes up."
In all the years of snow depth measurements in the Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 71% of the time. From 1899 to 2019 there have been 35 years with either a "zero" or a "trace." The last time the Twin Cities has seen a brown Christmas was actually very recent, happening in 2018. It also happened in 2015. If it happens again in 2020, that’s three of the last six years and is a trend far below average which, according to some meteorologists, is another sign of a changing climate.
We're not alone in Minnesota when it comes to lacking snow for Christmas.
Paul says, "The map above is predicted snowfall between now and Sunday morning, December 20. The odds of a white Christmas are high for New England and mountainous areas of the western USA, but only dribs and drabs of snow for the Upper Midwest. The pattern favors a continued mild, dry bias into late December, as jet stream steering winds blow from the Pacific, which is traditionally a quiet (boring) pattern for Minnesota."
"I'm just the messenger, but at the rate we're going Santa may very well show up on a cherry-red riding lawn mower Christmas Eve," Paul said. "No, Christmas hasn't been cancelled...Santa is still coming no matter what the weather, but for the near term Old Man Winter will be socially-distancing himself from Minnesota."
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What were our snowiest Christmases? By far the deepest snow was the extremely snowy year of 1983 when we had 20 inches on the ground in the Twin Cities. There was also 1982 which saw rain, thunder and lightning!
You also might remember 2009 when we got five inches on December 24th with another two inches coming on December 25th. But the snowiest ever goes way back to 1945 when Minneapolis got a cool 11 inches the 24th and 25th.
It's safe to say that having a very white Thanksgiving, which Minnesota certainly had, and a brown Christmas, would be very rare indeed.
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