When it comes to weather notes this winter, the stats keep getting more and more nuts. Already the warmest meteorological winter ever (December-February), Minnesota started March by fast-forwarding nearly three months and setting a few more records.
More on that below, but we start with a cloudy, drizzly, gray Monday in 'CCO Land'. Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas takes us through the forecast and more.
Quiet Week (rinse, repeat)
There's a decent amount of snow to the south and east of the Twin Cities Monday afternoon. Not much will pile up but it's enough to cause some low visibility and tough road conditions from Rochester to Red Wing up and through Eau Claire and into northern Wisconsin. It's going to fully miss the Twin Cities however, with just a little drizzle. Douglas says don't rule out a flurry or two, but it's still too warm.
"We should stay well above freezing today," says Douglas. "Only 10 degrees above average today, mid-40s with lots of clouds. The sun should come out Tuesday. I think we'll top 50 again, Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday, there could be a few rain showers."
Douglas says there's more precipitation in the area Friday but it is likely to miss the Twin Cities again.
"Friday another system once again slides off to our south," Douglas tells Vineeta Sawkar on the WCCO Morning News. "It stays quiet this week. The models indicate 60 returning the first half of next week."
That annual Minnesota State Boy's Hockey Tournament snow storm? Not this year.
Historic Sunday Warmth
It was very windy, true. But it was blowing in some historically warm weather across Minnesota on Sunday. Records didn't stand a chance.
"Yesterday was obviously an historic day all across the state," says Douglas. "It wasn't just the Twin Cities where, by the way, we had a high of 74 and some perspective is required. That's 39 degrees above average. 39 degrees above average. I can't remember the last time we were that much warmer than average. It topped the previous record by nine degrees. It was the warmest ever so early in the season by 13 days. In fact it's the earliest 70 degree high on record in the Twin Cities."
That's the average high for Memorial Day to put it in another perspective.
Rochester got to 72 degrees and that topped the previous record by 16 degrees. Saint Cloud got up to 70 and that was 38 degrees above average.
The Twin Cities tied or broke (more like shattered) record highs Friday, Saturday and Sunday to start March.
It's El Nino But It's More Than That
By now, previous El Nino winters have weakened and that is not happening in 2024.
"Yes, it is El Nino," says Douglas. "We've had 28 El Nino's since 1940, these natural cycles oscillations between the oceans and the atmosphere. And usually we tend to be warmer during El Nino winters. Back last summer, I wasn't the only one. I think every single Minnesota meteorologist looked at the forecast from NOAA about an impending El Nino and everybody more or less said, 'you know, it should be a milder, somewhat drier winter just based on history.' I can't remember an El Nino like this. There's obviously something else going on as well. This has been a special El Nino."
That something else is pretty clearly a warming climate. That combined with historically warm oceans in 2023 supercharged this El Nino to never-before-seen levels.
This warmth hit a large chunk of the U.S. this winter. Nearly a quarter of the country was 5 degrees above normal, an astonishingly large departure from normal in meteorological terms.
Just in February, the Twin Cities were 6.2 degrees above normal.
"Nobody alive has seen a winter like this in Minnesota," Minnesota DNR climatologist Pete Boulay told WCCO-TV. "Eighty-five percent of all the days this winter have been above normal. So we only had 13 of them that were below normal."
Not one cold weather daily record was set this winter. But 14 warm weather daily records were set. There also were more 50 degree days than ever before with 18 of those. The previous record? Eight.
So, is winter over?
Not quite, says Douglas. But he's pretty convinced we're on our way to an early spring.
"Yeah, pretty much. Could we still get slush later in March or maybe even April? Possibly. But there's an old saying in meteorology, 'don't fight the trends.' The trends are your friend and it would require something almost supernatural, I think, for us to get Arctic air in here. I think we're done with subzero. That seems pretty obvious. But I'm keeping my driveway stakes in for a couple of weeks."
The longer range data coming in says warmer than average temperatures hang on and with each passing day and week, winter weather continues to get less likely. The lack of snow cover makes it especially unlikely. The sun is now at an angle in the sky you'd see in early fall. Without snow to keep the air and ground cold, getting more snow and really cold temperatures isn't happening.
"Yes, it is El Nino," says Douglas. "We've had 28 El Nino's since 1940, these natural cycles oscillations between the oceans and the atmosphere. And usually we tend to be warmer during El Nino winters. Back last summer, I wasn't the only one. I think every single Minnesota meteorologist looked at the forecast from NOAA about an impending El Nino and everybody more or less said, 'you know, it should be a milder, somewhat drier winter just based on history.' I can't remember an El Nino like this. There's obviously something else going on as well. This has been a special El Nino."
"I do expect these warm temperature anomalies to spill over into March and the models indicate into April as well," Douglas explains. "I can't rule out a slushy storm, but here's the deal, if it snows in late March or even April, it stays on the ground usually a day or two. So I think the odds of eight inches of snow from one system are small, not zero. And that's why I'm not taking off my snow tires for at least a couple more weeks."