Soak up Monday's sun and warmth while you can. It's going to get cold and snowy. Well, kind of. In the winter of 2023-24 in Minnesota, this is the best it can conjure up.
Tuesday and Wednesday are shaping up to be a fleeting glance of real Minnesota winter but it is sandwiched between what we've come to expect: unseasonable warmth.
WCCO Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas has the details on warm, cold-snow, warm again.
Near Record Warm Monday
Much of the southern part of Minnesota has a shot at 60 on Monday and that's a real rarity in February.
"A shot at 60 on Monday, near record warmth for most of Minnesota," says Douglas. "The best chance of 60 coming south and west of the Twin Cities."
The National Weather Service is predicting a balmy 63 for MSP on Monday. The record is 64 set in 1896. That's also the highest temp ever recorded in February in the Twin Cities. There have only been six times in 150 years that 60 degrees has happened this month. So it's rare.
If you're scoring at home for warmer trends in this state, four of those six times have been since 1980, a pretty clear indication of a warming climate. El Nino or no El Nino, winter is warmer than it was 40, 50, 60 years ago.
This Meteorological winter (December-February) has already obliterated the record for most 50 degree temps. Add a 60 now.
Winter Returns.....Briefly
Tuesday starts out pretty mild with temperatures in the 40s. But your drive to work will be warmer than your drive home. Temps are going to drop all day.
That is going to be followed by some snow. Not a lot of snow. An inch, maybe two, but enough to let you know it is still February.
"There's a slight chance of a little bit of snow next as we get one of those spasms of cold air lasting all of two days," says Douglas. "I think we'll see 30s (most of) Tuesday."
Wednesday is going to start out very cold with lows in the single digits and highs around 22. It'll be breezy with gusts over 30 mph which will blow some of that snow around. Your commute Wednesday evening and Thursday morning could be impacted by some snow and ice.
If you happen to be in the northern reaches of Minnesota, you'll get a little preview. There's some snow falling in the northwest portion of the state and strong winds are going to blow that around and create tough conditions for driving. There is also some light snow expected in Duluth, along the North Shore and the Arrowhead region.
Warm Returns
Don't get too comfy in your hats and parkas. By Thursday it is going to warm up again, and do it quickly.
"By the end of next week back into the 50s," says Douglas. "The European Model hinting at 60 again Saturday. The first weekend of March may feel like late April. Just crazy."
Expect a high in the upper 40s Thursday, upper 50s Friday, and as Douglas says, 60s possible Saturday with signs of even upper 60s Sunday.
Warmest Winter In Minnesota History
So far February has had one day below normal, and probably one more this Wednesday. The rest has been above normal and days like Monday being far above normal.
The combined months of January-December are already the warmest on record. That means this is sure to be the warmest meteorological winter Minnesotans have ever experienced. There was one blip of cold in January for about a week. That came surrounded by extremely warm, cloudy (record-setting gloominess), foggy weather more reminiscent of March.
When it comes to describing "real winter" weather in the State of Minnesota, there was probably one week of it in mid-January. Three months, one week of winter.
"The normal high now is I think 32 the normal low is 15," explains Douglas. "We're going to be pretty consistently 15, 20, 25 degrees above average through the first week of March."
The warmest year on record goes all the way back to 1877-1878 and that was was such an extreme outlier, it seemed like those records would never be broken. That winter was over two degrees warmer than the second-warmest.
Until now of course. The final numbers will still need to be calculated but there's no question now that December-February are setting a new standard.
Does that mean we're past winter completely? Not quite.
"People keep asking if winter is over. I wish I had the answer key," says Douglas. "We're looking at the long range models and looking at the trends and, you know, I'm sitting here this morning kind of shaking my head because I'm kind of hoping for a couple more snowfalls to make it actually seem like winter. But as I mentioned on social media, winter is pretty much over. Put a fork in it."
There's still likely to be a few more below normal temps in March. Probably a few nuisance snowfalls.
"We will see some spasms, death rattles of Old Man Winter later in March," says Douglas. "I wouldn't rule out a few more slushy snows, but it's just almost incomprehensible how persistent this mild signal has been. Unlike any other El Nino warm phase of the Pacific I've ever witnessed back to the 1970s."
El Nino is a natural phenomenon which occurs every four to six years on average. Minnesota tends to see a warm phase from the Pacific Ocean and that usually means milder winters. This El Nino has been supersized, perhaps without equal. Factor that into this warming climate, and records are falling this year.
"This is taking it to a whole new level," explains Douglas. "So I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop. We've been waiting for months now. Could it drop? Could the pattern, you know, reverse and could we have a crazy outbreak of polar cold fronts and heavy snowstorms later in March or April? Yeah, it's possible."
But it's not likely at this point, especially with literally no snow on the ground in the Twin Cities to help cool the ground and reflect sunlight. It's just too warm now. Douglas says the sun angle is equivalent to early-October and that's not going to produce much in the way of snow.
"I wouldn't take that bet just based on the trends the last couple of months. It could still happen. But again this winter, put a fork in it. It's pretty much over."