"Well, there's a good chance southern Minnesota will see plowable snow by Thursday."
It's beginning to look a lot like January. At least it will be says WCCO Chief Meteorologist Paul Douglas. Get ready for some more January-like temperatures, and what he describes as a "Conga line" of potential snow events.
A very strong El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean has been pushing warmer weather into the Upper Midwest and it just hasn't been cold enough to produce any snow.
The Appetizer
It will begin this weekend, but the real chances for significant snow will be next week. For Minnesotans who enjoy winter, it's been a slog. If you don't like winter? Get yourself mentally prepared.
"There haven't been any real storms so far this winter which is crazy," says Douglas. "Here we are, the fifth day of January and we've had just over five inches in the Twin Cities. Much of that came right before Halloween when we picked up a couple and I remember thinking 'oh, here we go, it's late October and here we are getting a couple of inches.' And then nothing."
Our all or nothing winter is about to become all.
"If you like cold, if you like winter, next week things are going to ramp up," predicts Douglas. "We will finally get the winter so many of us like. And so many of us don't like."
To begin with, Douglas says there will be some nuisance snow this weekend.
"I think we'll get maybe a coating to an inch tonight," Douglas says. "It could start up late-afternoon or evening. I think we'll be just above freezing, the freeways just wet for the drive home today. Tonight it could start to stick."
Then there could be another half-inch or so on Saturday night, before we dry out Sunday says Douglas. Then there's next week.
The Main Course?
"A southern storm tracking into the Ohio Valley is going to brush us late Monday into Tuesday morning," Douglas says. "We could get a few inches and it could be enough to shovel and plow."
That's the preview. There's a chance for a main course Thursday but it is still too early to say for sure Douglas told Vineeta Sawkar on the WCCO Morning News.
"Another system coming in Thursday with a couple of inches," he said. "Really impossible and probably stupid to be trying to predict specific inch amounts this far out. But my hunch, is next week at this time we will have have three to five inches of snow on the ground in the Twin Cities. Give or take. That could be very conservative. It could be more than that."
Dessert?
Mother Nature, not being content enough with those couple of snowfalls, brings another southerly storm in next weekend with the potential for more snow.
"Another plow-able storm, these storms spaced two to three days apart starting next week," Douglas says. "We're going to have plenty of cold air."
That cold air has been not just absent, it's been totally on vacation when December temps ran the warmest they've ever been in Minnesota since records were kept.
"That's what's been missing, it's not rocket science, it's been too mild. Back in December we had over two inches of rain. That would have been a couple of feet of snow any other December," explains Douglas. "This time we'll have the cold air in place."
How cold will it be?
"I think we'll see teens for highs, starting late next week. And through much of mid-January, historically the coldest time of the year, temperatures will be single digits and teens for highs, nighttime lows at or possibly below zero," Douglas says.
It's not exactly "Polar vortex" territory. But all the ingredients are going to be in place for some real winter. Douglas says trying to predict full amounts and timing is "madness". There will at least be some winter weather that should make skiers, the snowshoe fans, and winter lovers happy for the first time.