The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward and won 16 straight games. They lost Marcus Smart and won five out of six. They lost Kyrie Irving and reeled off six in a row.
Each time, to varying degrees, we wrote them off. Hayward's broken ankle meant they'd fight to make the playoffs. Smart's sliced thumb would kill their league-leading defense. Irving? You think they can win a game without Kyrie Irving?!?
And yet they kept on trucking, in one stretch knocking off the playoff-bound Thunder, Blazers, Jazz and Raptors during a six-game winning streak despite fielding rosters heavy on the Abdel Naders and Guerschon Yabuseles of the world.
But now they face their most daunting challenge. We clung to a sliver of hope that Irving would return during the postseason after having a wire removed from his knee. An infection scuttled those plans, however, and season-ending surgery will sideline the All-Star point guard until next fall.
That leaves the second-seeded Celtics as one of the easiest marks in the Eastern Conference. And while I wish I could make the case that they'll surprise people and fight to a second straight conference final, a downgrading of expectations is in order. So let's settle for this:
They can still win a round.
All things considered, it would be an accomplishment. There's serious talent at the bottom of the East, whether it's Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks or John Wall and the Wizards. Those teams remain in a virtual tie with the Heat for sixth. All three are currently crunching the numbers to figure out how they can finish seventh and draw the depleted C's. It will probably come down to the final day of the season.
Finishing sixth means a likely first-round matchup with LeBron James and the rampaging Cavaliers, who have won 10 of 11, or the smoking-hot 76ers and Rookie of the Year lock Ben Simmons, who have won 12 straight in advance of Friday night's showdown vs. Cleveland. The eighth seed will get Toronto, the deepest team in the East.
Bring on the Celtics, say the Heat, Bucks, and Wizards. Not coincidentally, that's the order I'd rank those teams if I'm Boston. The Heat took two of three from the C's and ended their 16-game winning streak, but the playoffs are about alpha stars, which the Heat lack.
What they do have is tons of depth -- nine players averaging double figures, including old man Dwyane Wade in his return -- but their best player, guard Goran Dragic, isn't exactly Russell Westbrook. The Celtics will encounter a star deficiency vs. every opponent in the East except Miami. The Celtics have no one who can match John Wall or the Greek Freak if either goes off. Their cast of thousands could compete with the best of the Heat, for what it's worth.
The same does not hold true for the Bucks, who beat the Celtics on Tuesday. Antetokounmpo is a top-10 talent and future MVP who's putting up 27 and 10 a game. He made moves in the open floor on Tuesday that the Celtics won't see from anyone outside of LeBron. Even with Al Horford playing decent defense against Antetokounmpo, the Celtics have no answer there.
What they do have is a sizable advantage in front of the bench. Head coach Brad Stevens owns tons more experience and success than Milwaukee's Joe Prunty, a lifelong assistant who stepped in for the fired Jason Kidd to post a 19-14 record. From a talent perspective -- Antetokounmpo, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, Jabari Parker -- the Bucks rate with the Celtics. But even on Tuesday, with the C's battered and broken and playing without a point guard, they still took the Bucks to the final minute in a 106-102 loss. Milwaukee has a not-ready-for-primetime feel. Stevens' teams, by contrast, play with confidence. Perhaps that could be the difference.
That leaves Washington. The Celtics will have some say in whether that matchup happens, because they visit the Wizards on Tuesday. If I'm the C's, Washington would be last on my list.
The last time the two teams met, without Irving or Wall, the game went to double overtime. Momentum finally swung in Washington's favor when the Wizards belatedly realized no one could guard Bradley Beal, who scored 26 of his game-high 34 after halftime.
The Celtics have routinely struggled with Wall, who goes zero-to-60 as quickly as any player not named Westbrook. He averaged 25 points and 10 assists during last year's conference semifinal slugfest and dropped 40 on them in defeat during Isaiah Thomas's 53-point masterpiece.
The Wizards, however, have played below the sum of their parts all season, surpassed by the Pacers and Sixers in the Eastern Conference pecking order, and they never quite seem to be on the same page. Their bench provides little beyond Celtics pest Kelly Oubre, and they've lost seven of 10 since that double-OT victory in Boston.
Still, last year's seven-game series was scary. The Celtics routinely fell into huge holes -- they won Games 1 and 2 despite trailing by 14 and 13 points, respectively, after one quarter -- and the series came down to the individual brilliance of Thomas, who put up 29 points and 12 assists in the clinching Game 7.
There's no one this year to play the role of King in the Fourth if Wall and/or Beal goes off. So bring on Miami or Milwaukee.
Even without Irving, Hayward, Smart, and Daniel Theis, the Celtics can win a round, and that will have to do. For what's left of this year's club, it would be an impressive accomplishment.