Sunday’s AFC East battle between the Patriots (3-0) and Bills (3-0) is a somewhat surprising matchup of two early season unbeatens with September bragging rights in the division on the line.
In some ways, it’s a bit unexpected that either squad hits Week 4 without a loss.
Buffalo entered 2019 coming off a lackluster 6-10 2018 season, hoping for a brighter future behind second-year quarterback Josh Allen and a defense that was among the NFL’s best a year ago.
But even with a soft schedule, a 3-0 start is probably more than the most faithful Bills Mafia member could have predicted.
While the defending champion Patriots are annually among the top teams in football, Bill Belichick’s squad has stumbled out of the gates at times in recent years, including a 1-2 start last season on the way to another Lombardi Trophy.
But its own soft schedule – New England’s opponents are a combined 0-9 on the season – has Tom Brady’s troops riding high already.
In an modern NFL that’s all about offense and quarterback play, each of these AFC East foes interestingly bring plenty of defense to this battle, with Belichick heaping praise on the Bills on that side of the ball.
“They don't make any mistakes,” Belichick said of a Buffalo defense that finished No. 2 overall and No. 1 against the pass in 2018. “You've got to execute, you've got to handle everything they do. They don't give up much. They make you work for every yard.
“It's one of the best defenses in the league.”
Of course that would also describe the Patriots this season, a defensive unit that hasn’t allowed a touchdown through three games, or any points at all over the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Jets.
Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott portrayed the Patriots defense as playing “at an unbelievable level.”
For the Bills, Sunday is a clear measuring stick game, an opportunity for validation early in the season against a squad that’s a crazy 30-3 against Buffalo with Brady under center. Pulling off the upset would bring even more momentum to what fans hope is a turnaround for a team that’s been mired in mediocrity, or worse, for quite some time.
For the Patriots, Sunday is expected to be a far more competitive matchup than the last couple weeks. Gone are the three-score spreads against backup quarterbacks and non-competitive rivals.
“They’ve been ranked up there for a while now, and I think they’re good at all levels, so that’s the challenging part,” Brady said of the Buffalo defense and what the Patriots face on the road. “They have a good front, very good at linebacker, very good in the secondary, play the pass well, tough, physical, stout defense, well-coached, fundamentally sound. They play well at home; it’s a great environment. So, it’s pretty tough, it’s pretty tough. It’s a great challenge. They’re 3-0, they’re off to a great start, they’ve got a very good football team and it’s going to be really a great environment for football. They’re going to challenge us. This will be the toughest game we’ve faced, and we’re going to have to play a great game.”
New England has owned the AFC East, and really the Bills, for the better part of two decades. Behind a spunky, athletic, young quarterback and a talented defense, Buffalo is hoping to change that perception within the division on Sunday. While it may not happen, or even be likely, it’s a bit more plausible than what Miami and New York brought to the table in recent weeks.
As you wind down the hours to Sunday’s 1 p.m. kickoff, here’s a six-pack of focal points to follow in this matchup that’s understandably getting a bit more hype in Buffalo than it is in New England.
Match the emotion – No one will question the passion of the Bills Mafia, Buffalo’s loyal, active fan base. New Era Field will be rocking early on Sunday afternoon. If Buffalo can play well early and put up a fight against a New England team that’s outscored opponents a combined 27-0 in the first quarter this season and 53-0 in the first half, it will only fuel the home crowd. The Patriots execution on the first couple of series could be key to whether this is a true 60-minute battle or more the type of cruise-to-victory game New England has played to date this season. “After their pregame tailgate when they’re a little fired up. So, they’re pretty into it, they’re pretty loud and we’ve got to go out and we’ve got to execute early. I think starting fast, which we’ve actually done a good job with this year, that’s really important this week,” Brady said.
Time to catch on – Antonio Brown is gone, off on Twitter tirades and going back college classes. Julian Edelman is battling a chest injury that limited him in practice all week. The tight end position has been essentially a non-factor. While Brady is cruising early in the early year, his weapons are a bit limited right now. There is a chance he has to rely on Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett heavily in Buffalo against one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. New England’s offense sputtered a bit after Edelman left the game against the Jets last week. The combination of limited options and talented foe make this by far the biggest test the Patriots passing offense has faced this season. Is a guy like undrafted rookie Jakobi Meyers ready to step up if Edelman can’t go? Will Brady turn more to his passing backs? It will be interesting to see what offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Brady come up with. Certainly if Edelman is absent, the challenge grows immensely.
No Joshing around – Much has been made about the improvement the Bills strong-armed, young passer Allen has made. He entered the league as a raw first-round pick with upside. So far this season he’s made more plays than costly mistakes, though he does have three touchdowns and three interceptions. He’s dangerous with his legs, having already run 26 times for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Given the combination of running ability (including designed run plays) and a strong arm, Allen is a challenge for the Patriots defense that’s been so dominant in the back end. He’s certainly capable of doing damage, especially against the New England man schemes that are sometimes susceptible to scrambles. But he’s also capable of giving the ball away to a Patriots defense that’s been more than happy to take advantage of mistakes by opponents this season. Allen has the potential to be very good or very bad. Good Allen will give the Patriots a run for their money. Bad Allen will help the Patriots pad their impressive early season stats on defense. Given what New England can throw at the young quarterback both schematically and in terms of personnel, the latter seems more likely.
Get in the running – The offensive line has been banged up and in a state of flux. Pro Bowl fullback James Develin is on IR. Sony Michel hasn’t had much room to work on the ground and hasn’t seemed to maximize his opportunities. With Edelman banged up, it would be nice to turn to the ground game in Buffalo. At some point if Michel and the running game don’t get going it could hinder the effectiveness of the play-action passing game that’s been so good early this season. Buffalo’s run defense was middle of the pack a year ago and is allowing 4.4 yards per carry this year. Everyone in New England has openly talked about needing and wanting to get more production on the ground, doing so against the Bills impressive defense early on Sunday would certainly take some pressure off Brady in what has the potential to be a tough environment for the passing game.
Online contest – Considering all the injuries and personnel changes, the Patriots line has been more than good enough for the 3-0 start with three blowouts. But the group continues to face challenges. Left tackle newcomer Marshall Newhouse missed key practice time this week to illness. Ted Karras remains a work in progress at center – both in terms of his blocking and shotgun snaps. Dante Scarnecchia’s group continues to strive for continuity and cohesiveness. Buffalo’s defensive front is far from a pushover. Inside, rookie Ed Oliver and veteran Star Lotulelei can be dangerous. Trent Murphy and Jerry Hughes are more than capable at end and the linebacker group is athletic. Whether it’s trying to get the Michel-led ground game going or giving Brady the time he needs, the offensive line faces its biggest challenge of the season and remains the area of most concern in New England. If there are early issues in Buffalo for the Patriots, it would be a safe bet that the line will be part of the problem.
Prediction – The one-score spread tells you that most of the world expects this to be a far more competitive game than we’ve seen the Patriots play so far this season. That makes sense given the Bills solid defense. But, Allen is the wild card who’ll decide the game. Can he make more plays than mistakes against a New England defense that’s been stunningly dominant to open the new year? Will Brian Daboll, the Bills offensive coordinator who honed his game as a Belichick assistant, have something cooked up for his former boss’ team? If one of these teams is to be proven a bit of an early-season paper champion, it has to be the Bills. Look for Allen to make a costly mistake or two that will key the momentum shift to the visitors in what has the chance to be a sluggish game in the early going given the talent on the two defenses. Look for former Patriots young punter Corey Bojorquez and current young New England punter Jake Bailey (the reigning AFC Special Teams Player of the Week) to get to show off their legs early. But Brady makes enough plays in the second half to pull away to the 27-9 victory. It won’t be as easy as it has been, but New England remains undefeated and atop the AFC East.
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