What Red Sox may have to give up for Edwin Diaz

Mets closer Edwin Diaz
Photo credit USA Today Sports

Multiple reports leading up to the MLB trade deadline have indicated the Red Sox are looking at the reliever market. (Understandably so.) Among the bullpens Boston has looked at are the Giants and Mets’, reportedly having a scout present for their July 19 matchup.

San Francisco’s bullpen features Will Smith, Tony Watson and Sam Dyson, all of which were believed to be available at that point. Though now the Giants are competing for a Wild Card spot and seem to be going all-in for Bruce Bochy’s last year.

The Mets — who acquired Blue Jays starting pitcher Marcus Stroman on Sunday, despite the fact they’re fourth in their division and well out of the NL Wild Card race — have 2018 All-Star closer Edwin Diaz, who hasn’t exactly put up All-Star level numbers in 2019. Yet, ESPN’s Buster Olney thinks Diaz “makes a lot of sense for Boston.”

1.45 WHIP4.81 ERA3.0 BB/922/26 in save opportunities https://t.co/A6PRAYGgwJ

— Nick Friar (@Nick_Friar) July 28, 2019

A closer with those numbers doesn’t seem to make sense for anyone, though the reliever market is shrinking as a Wild Card berth seems believable for more and more teams by the second.

While there is some risk with Diaz, there is potential for high reward. Not only has he had success at this level, but he’s under club control through 2022, becoming arbitration eligible in 2020. So he could be in Boston for quite some time. Which means the Mets are probably going to want someone impactful from the Red Sox farm system.

Olney thinks a deal would have to include either Bobby Dalbec, who was ranked the top Red Sox prospect by Baseball America entering the season, or Boston’s 2018 first-round pick, Triston Casas. Both are corner infielders with plenty of power.

Any Red Sox offer for Edwin Diaz would presumably include minor-league slugger Bobby Dalbec, who is blocked at 3b by the younger Rafael Devers, or 2018 No. 1 pick Triston Casas, in case Mets view him as 3b option. Red Sox confident they will make impact bullpen move.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 29, 2019

Dalbec would make more sense at this stage for both teams, given Rafael Devers’ development this season. Though, based on a conversation with a member of the Red Sox organization earlier in the year, trading Dalbec for a reliever — albeit a closer who’s previously posted elite numbers — it would seem like a net loss. The club was high on him at the time, both offensively and defensively. He has 20 home runs in 101 games with Double-A Portland this year, but he has struck out 106 times and his OPS (.825) may not be what the organization was looking for entering the season.

Casas, 19, is in his first full season of pro ball. He’s hitting .252 with 17 home runs, 19 doubles and 96 strikeouts in 93 games this year. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, scouts like Casas’ bat, but he’s probably viewed as a first baseman, which is where he’s primarily played for Class A Greenville this year.

If the Mets are interested in infielders with significant power potential, above all else, there really aren’t many other players the Red Sox can offer. Among the organization’s top-30 prospects, according to MLB.com, Brandon Howlett, 19, Antoni Flores, 18, and Nick Northcut, 20, have the most power potential among infielders after Dalbec and Casas. But all three still project as average big league power hitters, so they seem unlikely. Certainly, none of them could be a centerpiece like Dalbec or Casas.

If New York just wants a talented infielder, C.J. Chatham would likely be brought up. He’s battled injuries this year, but is still hitting .299 with 22 doubles in 78 games.

Lastly, if the Mets simply want a talented offensive player, Jarren Duran should be a top-target for them, much like Casas and Dalbec. He was called up earlier this year to Portland after dominating with Class A Advanced Salem (.387 average, .998 OPS). Though his overall numbers haven’t been nearly at the same level for the Sea Dogs (.250 average, .605 OPS), he’s shown growth over the season, catching fire in his last 10 games (15-for-36).

Dalbec seems like he would be the most desirable of all. He should have a shot at being an everyday big leaguer much sooner than Casas. More importantly, the Mets have Pete Alonso at first base. Adding Casas seems like a significant roll of the dice if there are legitimate concerns about his ability to play third, especially when Dalbec is an option.