This felt inevitable.
Two years ago, it was the Lightning that showed the Bruins just how much growing they still had to do. The next wave of youth that was starting to complement the Bruins’ veteran core was showing promise and had just helped lead the team to a hard-fought seven-game series win over the Maple Leafs in the first round.
They proved to be little match for a Lightning team that had been to a Stanley Cup Final and another conference final in the past three years, though. After the Bruins turned some heads with a 6-2 Game 1 victory, Tampa Bay won four straight and thoroughly overmatched Boston at 5-on-5.
The rematch last year seemed inevitable if the Bruins, now a year older and wiser, could once again dispose of Toronto in the first round, which they did. But the Lightning, fresh off one of the best regular seasons in NHL history, were shockingly swept by Columbus in the first round. With no Tampa to get through, the Bruins marched all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, only to fall to St. Louis in seven.
It seemed unlikely they would be so lucky as to avoid the Lightning for a second straight year, and sure enough here we are. Delayed by several months and being played in a bubble, but still a titanic matchup.
Both teams now have abundant playoff experience up and down their rosters, and both have unfinished business. That has been the Bruins’ motto all season after coming so close last year, but it fits the Lightning too.
They have already avenged their loss to the Blue Jackets from a year ago, beating Columbus in five games in the first round this year. Now they want to win that Cup that has eluded this core despite three trips to the conference finals and one to the Cup Final in the last six years.
As Brad Marchand put it Saturday, this is a “measuring stick” series. Since the start of the 2017-18 season, the Lightning and Bruins rank first and second, respectively, in wins and points in the NHL. They’ve won the last two Presidents’ Trophies. Now we get to see who’s better right now and who gets to continue their Cup run.
“These are the series that people want to see and these are the series guys want to be a part of and playing,” Marchand said. “That's what makes the Cup worth it, because you've got to play teams like Tampa.”
Here are five keys for the Bruins to win this series:
1. Have Halak play like a true No. 1
Jaroslav Halak was good in two of his three starts against Carolina after Tuukka Rask’s departure, and his overall .932 save percentage in the series was impressive. But he also struggled mightily in Game 4, giving up three soft goals.
The Bruins still won that game thanks to a ferocious third-period comeback against a Hurricanes team that didn’t know what hit them (quite literally in the case of Charlie McAvoy’s hit on Jordan Staal), but they won’t find it nearly as easy to overcome bad goals against a much better Lightning team.
Going up against Andrei Vasilevskiy, the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and a Vezina finalist again this year, the Bruins need Halak to at least make the saves he should make, and maybe even steal a couple goals or a game at some point.
Adding to the challenge for Halak is the schedule. Games 2 and 3 are on back-to-back nights this Tuesday and Wednesday, and Games 6 and 7 would be on back-to-back nights next Tuesday and Wednesday if the series gets that far.
Coach Bruce Cassidy entertained the idea of 23-year-old rookie backup Dan Vladar playing at some point, but this isn’t the time you want to be having goalies make their NHL debuts. Halak starting every game, playing well and powering through the schedule is what the Bruins want and need.
2. Win the special teams battle
After going 0-for-13 in the first four games in Toronto, the Bruins’ power play came alive beginning in Game 2 against Carolina, going 5-for-15 over the final four games of the series, including scoring two crucial goals late in the second period of the clinching Game 5 to turn the tide of that game.
The Lightning, meanwhile, went 0-for-10 on the power play in their first-round series, continuing some rather surprising man-advantage struggles they had in the second half of the regular season (13.3% from Jan. 1 on).
The Lightning also lacked discipline in the first round, putting the Blue Jackets on the power play 20 times in five games. Their penalty kill only gave up three goals, though, so it didn’t hurt them too much.
The Bruins need to make sure that when the Lightning take penalties in this series, they make them pay, just like they did to Carolina.
On the flip side, they need to stay disciplined themselves and not let the Lightning power play get going. Tampa coach Jon Cooper said that one of the problems was that his team just wasn’t drawing enough penalties to get into any kind of rhythm on the power play. The Bruins would be wise to continue that trend, and continue their strong killing when they do put Tampa a man up.
3. Keep Krejci hot
If you’re looking for what’s changed between the Bruins’ round-robin loss to the Lightning two weeks ago and now, well this is it. Krejci played that game with Nick Ritchie and Karson Kuhlman on his wings, and that experiment just straight-up did not work.
Since then, Krejci has clicked with Ondrej Kase on his right and Jake DeBrusk back on his left. He was also a force on the power play, as it was his move to the top unit that sparked the group and forced Cassidy to keep him there even after David Pastrnak returned. All things considered, Krejci was probably the Bruins’ best player in the first round, leading the team with eight points on three goals and five assists.
The Bruins are a different and much better team when they have a second line playing like this and Krejci playing like vintage Playoff Krejci, and they’re going to need that to continue against a deep Lightning squad. Tampa doesn’t have any pushover line that Krejci and Co. can feast on from a matchup perspective, so they’ll have to work for their chances.
4. Limit Point and Kucherov
The Bruins catch a break with Steven Stamkos still out, at least to start the series and possibly for the whole thing. He was dealing with a core muscle injury at the time of the pause, then reportedly suffered some sort of leg injury in July during voluntary workouts. He hasn't played in a game since the restart, and Tampa coach Jon Cooper said Saturday simply that Stamkos is “not available right now.”
That weakens the Lightning’s top line a little, but it is still extremely dangerous with reigning Hart Trophy winner Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point leading the way and Ondrej Palat replacing Stamkos. Kucherov and Point each had seven points in Tampa’s series against Columbus to lead the offense, with Point also scoring both of Tampa’s overtime winners.
Looking at the last three meetings between these teams, it’s been a lot of the Zdeno Chara-Charlie McAvoy pairing and the second and fourth lines (which should have Sean Kuraly back on it to start this series) against the Point line, as Cassidy has opted to mostly keep Patrice Bergeron’s line away from the top line vs. top line matchup.
And the results have actually been pretty good. In those three games, with the Point line on the ice at 5-on-5, the Lightning have had 50% of the shot attempts and 45.5% of the shots on goal and they’ve been outscored 2-1. Expect the Bruins to deploy the same strategy to start, and they would be more than happy to get similar results.
And if Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak continue to get more favorable matchups, they need to take advantage, which they have in those last three meetings. In their 5-on-5 shifts, the Bruins have had 62.7% of the shot attempts and 77.3% of the shots on goal and have outscored Tampa 2-1.
5. Don’t let Tampa’s third line dictate play
On a team full of stars (we haven’t even mentioned former Norris Trophy winner Victor Hedman), it’s a pair of trade deadline acquisitions on the third line that have really come to redefine the Lightning and help give them more of a punch in their bottom six.
Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow were both acquired via trade in February, and they now flank center Yanni Gourde on a third line that combined for four goals and five assists against Columbus. When they were on the ice at 5-on-5 in that series, Tampa had 70.7% of the shot attempts , 69% of the shots on goal and a 4-1 edge in goals.
Needless to say, the Bruins will need to do much better than that, whether it’s their own third line -- which looks like it will be Charlie Coyle between Nick Ritchie and Anders Bjork to start the series -- or maybe the Bergeron line that gets the bulk of that matchup.
The Lightning often turn to that trio for “energy shifts” -- the start of games or periods, or after goals -- given their physicality and ability to pin teams in deep with relentless pressure, and there’s been plenty of talk about how their shifts can become contagious through the rest of the Tampa lineup. The Bruins need to stifle some of that energy and not allow them to get the momentum ball rolling in the Lightning’s favor.
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