Everyone panic! The Bruins have lost three of their last six games!
OK, obviously there’s no need for that. Two of those losses have been shootout losses against Western Conference playoff teams, including a 3-2 defeat at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday. The other was an all-around weird game against Arizona in which they outshot the Coyotes 46-16 but lost in the closing seconds on a missed icing call.
The Bruins still have the best record in the NHL at 23-4-2. They still rank second in offense (3.79 goals per game), first in defense (2.14 goals against per game), third on the power play (27.9%), and first on the penalty kill (85.7%). Their plus-48 goal differential is 16 goals better than any other team.
There are plenty of reasons to still be extremely optimistic despite this mild slip-up recently, including the fact that a few key players have still not fully hit their stride, but could begin to at any moment.
Here’s a look at three of them:
Brad Marchand
Marchand has 22 points in 21 games since returning from offseason hip surgery. So, what’s the problem?
Well, the vast majority of that production (15 points, to be exact) has come on the power play, including his snipe of a goal Thursday night. The flip side of that is that just seven of his points have come at even strength, including just five at 5-on-5 play.
Marchand ranks 14th on the Bruins in 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes (1.14) and 11th in 5-on-5 goals per 60 (0.46). As you can probably guess, that is way below his usual level -- last year, for instance, he was more than doubling those marks with 1.19 goals and 2.78 points per 60. Marchand’s 5-on-5 dip is a big reason the Bruins’ first line of him, Patrice Bergeron and Jake DeBrusk is scoring just 1.68 goals per 60 minutes, well below their rate of 3.61 last season.
Bruins coach Jim Montgomery recently estimated that Marchand was still only at 80-85%, and Marchand has acknowledged that his return from the double hip surgery is an ongoing process that has required patience.
One thing he’s trying to work on that he thinks could help is shortening the length of his shifts.
“I think at times I’ll extend my shift,” Marchand said Thursday night. “In the past I could maybe hang onto pucks when I’m tired, and right now I’m not able to do that. Once I get tired, it affects me for a few shifts. It’s one thing [Montgomery] has talked to me about a couple times, is just shortening up my shifts and making sure that a long one doesn’t affect my next three or four and throw me out of sync.
“I’m not too worried. It’s been a little bit of a tough stretch, but there’s been multiple games where our line’s gonna have multiple goals. There’s times where everything goes in; there’s times when nothing goes in. That’s part of it. Just have to stick with it.”
The Bruins have still been winning and Marchand has still been great on the power play. His 5-on-5 production should return at some point, and when it does, the Bruins will be even more dangerous offensively.
David Krejci
Different situations, but Krejci is another player whose return everyone knew would be a bit of a process. Playing in Czechia for a year was better than taking a year completely off, but it also wasn’t particularly close to playing in the NHL at an NHL pace.
Krejci’s overall numbers (21 points in 24 games) are solid, but some career-best finishing (21.6% shooting percentage, way above his career average of 12.6%) has masked some drop-off in other areas.
He’s eighth on the team in 5-on-5 assists per 60 minutes at 0.96, which is lower than you’d expect for someone who’s been such a great playmaker throughout his career. During his last NHL season in 2020-21, Krejci finished second on the team with 1.66 assists per 60.
Krejci’s two-way play has dipped a bit from that 2020-21 season as well, with his Corsi-for percentage dropping from 57.2% to 50.8%, his expected goals-for percentage going from 57.9% to 50.7%, and scoring chances allowed when he’s on the ice jumping from 21.1 per 60 minutes to 27.6.
Krejci is the only Bruins regular who has a minus rating on the season (-1). The Czech Line of him, Pastrnak and Pavel Zacha has been outscored 5-4 during their 115 minutes together.
Now, that 2020-21 season was statistically one of the best of Krejci’s career, especially in terms of advanced stats. It may not be realistic to expect him to get back to that level after a year away. But getting to somewhere between that and where he is now would still swing that second line into the positive and help the Bruins become an even better 5-on-5 team.
Jeremy Swayman
It’s been easy to not worry or even think about Swayman given Linus Ullmark’s Vezina-caliber start to the season, but the Bruins really would like to get him on track at some point soon.
While Ullmark has allowed three or more goals just five times in 20 starts, Swayman has allowed that many five times in eight starts, including giving up four goals on 16 shots in his last start on Friday night in Arizona. His .887 save percentage and 2.80 goals-against average pale in comparison to not just Ullmark’s terrific season (.938, 1.83), but also to Swayman’s first 51 NHL games over the previous season-plus (.920, 2.23).
Swayman did miss a few weeks with an injury, but he had been inconsistent even before that. The combination of Ullmark’s excellence and Swayman’s injury and up-and-down play has resulted in the Bruins riding Ullmark a little more than they probably anticipated, including Ullmark starting each of the last three games.
That’s fine for now. Ullmark certainly doesn’t look overworked. But the Bruins would prefer for Swayman to get going so they can get a little closer to an even split and make sure Ullmark can stay fresh throughout the second half and into the playoffs.
Swayman will probably start Saturday afternoon against the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets (nothing official, though), which would be a great opportunity for a get-right game before some tougher games to finish out the month.
All stats from NHL.com, Natural Stat Trick or Evolving-Hockey
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